Beryl, which became the season’s first hurricane at 5 p.m. Saturday, saw its maximum sustained winds increase to 85 mph (137 km/h) by the time the 11 p.m. warning was issued.
The forecast for the strength of Beryl, the season’s first hurricane, continued to rise, with the hurricane center calling for Beryl to reach top sustained winds of 120 mph (190 kph) as it barrels through the Caribbean Sea, the hurricane center said.
“Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday evening or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surges,” the hurricane center said.
The hurricane center sharply revised upwards its forecast of the hurricane’s strength on Saturday. According to the center, the storm’s structure has become more compact and it will likely have “an opportunity to intensify rapidly given low wind shear conditions.”
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Hurricane warnings went out in the eastern Caribbean as the islands braced for the first hurricane of what is expected to be an extremely active storm season.
On Wednesday, the storm is expected to encounter unfavorable atmospheric conditions, with high-altitude winds weakening the storm.
At 11 p.m. Saturday, the storm was located 600 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 20 mph.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Martinique and Tobago. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Dominica.
“Development this far east in late June is unusual,” the hurricane center’s meteorologists said. “In fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed this early in the year over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic.”
Beryl is not expected to hit South Florida.
Meanwhile, the hurricane center is monitoring two other systems.
A tropical wave is expected to develop in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred kilometres south-southwest of Cape Verde, but is currently accompanied by disorganised showers and thunderstorms.
“This system may develop slowly next week, moving generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph (24 to 32 km/h),” meteorologists said.
At the 8:00 p.m. Saturday advisory, it had a 70% chance of developing over the next seven days.
Also, a tropical wave already moving through the Caribbean and moving west toward Mexico has been downgraded, despite developing widespread showers and thunderstorms.
“The disturbance is expected to move westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, after which some development will be possible,” forecasters said.
At that point, as the system moves toward central Mexico, it could develop into a tropical depression.
Heavy rain is still expected in parts of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
The chance of formation in the next 48 hours is 50%.
The next storm with a name is Chris.
The western Gulf of Mexico last week spawned the first tropical storm of the 2024 season. The system, named Alberto, made landfall in Mexico, 250 miles (400 kilometers) south of the U.S. border, but sent storm surges and flooding to locations 500 miles (800 kilometers) away in Louisiana.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual outlook for May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 42 miles per hour, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has fourteen named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has predicted four to seven major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher hurricanes, for 2024.
Experts from Colorado State University said in their 2024 forecast that the US east coast, including Florida, has a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Weather forecasters say the record warm water temperatures now blanketing much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue through the August-October hurricane season. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic Ocean was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August—hurricane season.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
