According to the National Hurricane Center, a developing system in the Atlantic Ocean could soon become the season’s next tropical depression or storm. Warnings could be issued for parts of the Caribbean later Sunday.
The broad low pressure area with more organized showers and thunderstorms is located about 1,000 meters east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form within a few days as the system approaches and then passes over the Leeward Islands,” meteorologists said. “Stakeholders on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and warnings or vigilance may be needed for portions of the area as early as later today.”
The system is expected to reach the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, by mid-week.
The NHC gives the system a 70% chance of developing over the next two days and a 90% chance over the next seven days.
Long-range forecast models increasingly indicate that the system will turn north before the end of the week, but it is too early to say with certainty where the system will go.
Once circulation gets going and the system develops, forecasting models become more reliable.
If the storm is named, it could become Tropical Storm Ernesto.
“It is too early to know if this system will have a direct impact on east-central Florida,” the National Weather Service in Melbourne said in its long-range forecast. “At the very least, we could see long-lasting swells reaching the coast by the end of the week, which could lead to rough waves and a high risk of rip currents.”
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen four named storms so far, including two hurricanes. The most recent, Hurricane Debby, made landfall in Big Bend, Florida, on Monday as a Category 1 hurricane. It then weakened to a tropical storm, dropping torrential rain as it moved east out into the Atlantic, turned north, and made a second landfall in South Carolina on Thursday.
The chance of storms is likely to increase as the hurricane season progresses from mid-August through October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its forecast for the season this week, now predicting an extremely active storm with 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 will be hurricanes. Of those, 4-7 will become major hurricanes.
The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
