Hurricane Milton weakened slightly overnight but remained a formidable and growing Category 4 hurricane early Tuesday morning on its way to a devastating landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Although the storm’s sustained winds had diminished somewhat from a near-record speed of 200 mph, there were still extremely strong winds of 155 mph, and the slight weakening did little to reduce Milton’s main threat. A life-threatening storm surge of up to 15 feet was expected to push across a huge swath of coastline somewhere between Fort Myers Beach and Cedar Key.
From there, Milton could plow a path of record-breaking damage across the state, through Orlando’s theme parks before heading back out along the Space Coast. Forecasters warned that as Milton weakens, likely to a Category 3 before landfall sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday, the small storm will increase its size and sweep its damaging winds over a wider area.
That threat placed nearly the entire state, including Miami-Dade and Broward counties and the Florida Keys, under some sort of hurricane or tropical storm warning or watch. Southeast Florida could see tropical storm surges Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, with flooding rain from Milton’s outer feeder bands.
At 5 a.m., there was little change in the track overnight, with the center of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of concern focused on heavily populated Tampa Bay, which was still reeling from the region’s worst storm in a century: Hurricane Helene only two weeks early. Milton could be much worse on its current trajectory, and highways along much of the Gulf Coast were packed late Monday as residents began one of the state’s largest evacuations.
The NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory noted, “There is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane as it reaches the state.”
Milton, still about 600 miles southwest of Tampa, began slowly gaining some latitude overnight, indicating the country may be beginning its predicted turn northeast toward Florida. The NHC had pushed back the expected landfall slightly, possibly in the early morning hours Thursday, but impacts along the coast will be felt at least a day earlier.
On Monday, Milton exploded into a terrifying Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. Barometric pressure – a measure of intensity – at one point fell to the fourth lowest ever recorded.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” National Hurricane Center forecaster Eric Blake wrote in Monday’s 5 p.m. update.
The latest issue focuses Milton’s powerful gaze on the mouth of Tampa Bay, threatening a densely populated region that is extremely vulnerable to coastal flooding and cuts through some of the state’s most densely populated areas, including Orlando, before spitting back out onto the coast. east coast near Cape Canaveral.
The exact location of landfall is difficult to determine this far out and will continue to wobble as the hurricane center refines its projections. The latest storm surge projections suggest the Tampa Bay region, including Bradenton, could experience a surge of 10 to 15 feet. Areas just south and north, including Naples, could see 6 to 10 feet.
For many Gulf Coast communities, that could be worse than the devastating Hurricane Helene, which brought an eight-foot wave to the Tampa Bay area. State and local officials are working around the clock to clear the debris left on the streets of Helene before it becomes projectiles from Milton’s high winds.
At a news conference Monday morning, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the efforts have made a dent in the remaining mess, but he urged residents to complete their preparations for the storm Tuesday evening.
“Time will start to run out very, very soon,” he said.
President Joe Biden approved Florida’s emergency declaration, freeing up financial support for Florida to prepare for and respond to the storm. FEMA also told reporters Monday that it has enough money to respond to the new hurricane, despite the multi-million dollar disaster bill from Hurricane Helene. Federal resources are already on their way to Florida.
Some mandatory evacuations have already been declared in six Florida counties, including Pinellas and Manatee, but more are expected Tuesday, ahead of Milton’s arrival. The tolls were lifted in West Central Florida, Central Florida and Alligator Alley, and officials said the roads were already congested with motorists heading east and north.
Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Department of Emergency Management, said Sunday that the state was preparing for “the largest evacuation we’ve seen since, most likely, 2017’s Hurricane Irma.”
On Monday, he warned that shelters were expected to fill up, and the state was already working to identify backup locations for additional shelters when the first wave becomes busy. Guthrie told residents the amount of storm surge they expected in the Tampa Bay area was life-threatening.
“If they called your evacuation zone, I beg you, I beg you, to evacuate,” he said. “I would highly recommend to anyone with the means to do so…get out there today, wherever that may be.”
