Two systems in the Atlantic Basin — Hurricane Rafael and a disturbance northeast of the Leeward Islands — are drenching parts of the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said. Rafael’s planned path has taken a wild swing west and his ultimate destination is still in flux.
After drenching western Cuba and knocking out the entire island’s power grid, Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico, still a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (170 km/h). The storm is expected to weaken over the next few days and a mid-height ridge is expected to push Rafael west toward the Texas-Mexico border.
Although landfall is unlikely in Texas, storm surges and coastal flooding are possible in some parts of the coast.
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Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, meteorologists are observing a low-pressure trough northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center said gradual development is possible through the end of the week and into the weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists said the system could develop into a tropical depression or storm along the northern islands of the Caribbean this week.
The next named storm of the season will be Sara.
Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. Thursday, November 7:
Hurricane Rafael: What you need to know
Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
See spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Will Hurricane Rafael Hit Texas?
Hurricane Rafael has shifted its path from Florida and is now heading west into the Gulf of Mexico.
“Once in the Gulf of Mexico, small differences in Rafael intensity and atmospheric steering winds can have a significant impact on the final trajectory,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger.
Strong winds from Rafael are expected to cause rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico late this week and early this weekend. These swells, from east to west, will likely create life-threatening surf and current conditions.
If Rafael makes landfall, areas to the north and east are likely to experience coastal flooding.
According to AccuWeather, a landfall in the US remains unlikely. However, residents around the Gulf of Mexico should watch the storm and incoming wind gusts.
National Hurricane Center Map: What Else Is and How Likely are They to Strengthen?
Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Near the Leeward Island: A low pressure trough just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce unorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.
Regardless of the development, locally heavy rain showers are possible in the coming days in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
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Formation probability during 48 hours: Low, 20 percent.
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Training opportunity for seven days: Low, 20 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is medium and red is high.
The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.
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When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Hurricane Rafael is heading toward the Gulf of Mexico. Is Texas in his path?
