It was an unknown ending to the 2024 season for third baseman Alex Bregman — and an unexpectedly early entry into free agency.
When the Houston Astros crashed out of the American League playoffs at the hands of the upstart Detroit Tigers led by their former captain AJ Hinch, it was Bregman’s earliest season since his rookie year in 2016. October 17 – Game 7 of the 2020 ALCS – was the first on the calendar. Bregman’s Astros had been eliminated in one of the previous seven seasons. Traditionally, Oct. 2 marked the start of Houston’s annual deep playoff run, rather than its abrupt end. But as the Tigers secured the finals that Wednesday afternoon in the early days of baseball’s most unpredictable month, Bregman’s uncertain future came to the fore, with the possibility that the painful early exit from the postseason could also be his final game as an Astro player. marked. .
It’s possible that Bregman’s tenure in Houston will continue, as there are several compelling reasons to believe that will ultimately be the case. But Bregman will first hit the open market with the opportunity to start a new chapter elsewhere, bringing with him a near-unparalleled track record of individual and collective success that would strengthen any roster and clubhouse.
Since the early days of his development, growing up in New Mexico, Bregman has done nothing but win. He won multiple gold medals as a high school player and played for USA Baseball’s 16U and 18U teams. He reached the College World Series in two of his three seasons at LSU. Selected second overall in 2015, Bregman’s professional career has coincided directly with Houston’s top ranking in the American League. Although the Astros missed a playoff spot with 84 wins in Bregman’s rookie year, Houston has qualified for every postseason since, including seven straight trips to the American League Championship Series from 2017-2023.
Only Derek Jeter has played more postseason games in his age-30 season (110) than the 99 October games in which Bregman has already appeared. Bregman’s 99 career playoff games are already tied with Tino Martinez for eighth-most in MLB history, and he ranks in the top-10 on the all-time postseason leaderboards in runs (63 ), RBI (54), home runs (19) and total bases (164) – with his thirties still ahead of him.
Bregman’s wealth of postseason experience, renowned work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader are some of the key features of his case as one of this winter’s premier free agents. At the same time, October’s track record and off-the-field qualities are only part of the equation when teams evaluate whether to commit to a free agent long-term. It’s equally crucial to understand what a player brings to the table over the course of 162 games before even considering their value during the playoffs.
Bregman’s glove stood out, but one offensive benchmark was missing that could have resulted in yellow flags
Bregman’s regular-season resume is also great, although it can be split into two separate sections. In his early twenties, Bregman seemed on his way to becoming a full-fledged superstar. His fifth-place finish in the AL MVP voting in 2018 somehow understated how good he was, as Bregman’s 7.9 fWAR ranked third in the MLB, behind only Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. In 2019 – a season in which league slugging rose to heights not seen since the late 1990s, likely due to a livelier ball – Bregman’s production exploded even further. He hit a career-high 41 home runs, drove in 112 runs and drew an MLB-best 119 walks, ultimately narrowly losing out to Trout for the AL MVP Award. With that monster campaign coming during his age-25 season, the sky seemed like the limit for Bregman.
Since then, and since the offensive environment across the league has returned to a more modest state, Bregman’s bat has ranged from good to great, rather than MVP caliber. Still, combined with an excellent glove at third base, Bregman is consistently rated as one of the best at his position, albeit a notch below the inner circle of elite players at the top of the league.
Bregman’s identity as a hitter is rooted in his exceptional ability to make contact, with strikeouts that are among the lowest in the league on an annual basis. Combined with an extremely astute eye that leads to routinely high step totals, Bregman has long been an OBP expert. Although his average and maximum exit velocities pale in comparison to most traditional sluggers, Bregman has consistently produced a favorable batted ball distribution that allows for a boatload of extra base hits despite his modest raw power. While he’ll likely never replicate the eye-popping totals of 2018-2019, he remains a safe annual bet for 30-ish doubles and 25-ish home runs, perhaps depending on his next home run.
That trend continued in 2024, with one notable caveat: Bregman’s walk rate plummeted to a shocking degree, dropping to a 6.9% clip, which was almost half of the 13.8% he posted over the past six seasons had posted. While he continued to make plenty of contact, Bregman was much more aggressive in 2024, posting his highest overall swing and chase rates since 2017, and his OBP paid the price.
Bregman also had the coldest start of his career in his platform year. His .577 OPS in March-April was his worst mark in any single month of his career, and he was one of many Astros hitters who struggled during the team’s stunningly poor first six weeks of the season. Eventually the ‘Stros found their way, and so did Bregman. Although his OPS was still a paltry .589 on May 27, Bregman warmed up in the summer months and finished remarkably strong, hitting .290/.337/.581 with 12 HRs over the final 38 games of the year.
Although his ice-cold start and sharp drop in free passes kept his overall offensive output below career norms, Bregman’s all-around value was still buoyed by a spectacular year as a third base defenseman, highlighted by his first Gold Glove Award . The honor may have been partly a product of lesser competition in his league – Matt Chapman now plays in the National League – but it still reflected a new high for Bregman’s glovework, posting career bests in Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Fielding Run. Value metrics.
That Bregman reached a new defensive peak at the hot corner in 2024 made it all the more curious that one of the first pieces of information to surface about his free agency was a willingness to move to second base if the situation called for it, said his agent Scott Boras. Such added versatility could theoretically open him up to more teams, with the third base situation already settled. Bregman also played exclusively shortstop in college and scored some runs at second base earlier in his career, so it is likely that Bregman will be able to return to center infield. And while it hasn’t hampered his ability to be an impact defender at third base yet, Bregman’s arm strength is also below average according to Statcast, suggesting his overall defensive profile on the right side of the infield could be better aging.
Boras also revealed that Bregman recently underwent a procedure on his throwing arm to remove bone chips from his elbow, so that’s another element for teams to consider when evaluating his free agency, though he fully expects to recover in time for spring training.
Perhaps a position change is indeed in order, but for now let’s consider Bregman for what we know he already is – a Gold Glove third baseman – and consider potential adjustments accordingly.
Teams that feel like his hottest pursuers: Astros, Yankees, Tigers and Mets
The Astros remain firmly in the mix to sign Bregman as a free agent, with general manager Dana Brown stating Bregman is the team’s “biggest priority” and Jose Altuve’s adamant statements that Bregman remains his outfield buddy. It’s entirely possible that Houston will decide between two paths regarding its next high-dollar commitments: keep Bregman this winter, or let him walk and instead prepare to pursue a long-term pact with Kyle Tucker, either via extension or via a huge free agent. deal when the star outfielder hits the open market in a year. Perhaps team owner Jim Crane will increase the budget to ensure both homegrown stars remain in Houston long-term, but that’s a pricey proposition. The organizational decision to let Carlos Correa leave free was certainly a big one, but Jeremy Pena was then set as heir apparent. Such internal replacements do not exist for players like Bregman or Tucker, putting pressure on Crane and Co. increases to secure one or both in the long term to ensure the core player base remains at championship quality.
The Astros are also one of the few contenders with a clear hole at third base. Maybe the Yankees can get involved if they miss Juan Soto because they want Jazz Chisholm Jr. can shift back to his more natural second base. Perhaps the Mets would pursue Bregman if Pete Alonso leaves and rising star Mark Vientos moves to first base. Seattle is actively looking for upgrades at both second and third base this winter, looking for an improved offense to bolster its elite pitching staff, but the Mariners haven’t spent much on a free-agent hitter in years, a trend that is not visible is likely to change. Perhaps Toronto would invest heavily in Bregman as a core player on the left side of the infield, pending the loss of Bo Bichette to free agency next winter.
Would a reunion with Hinch in Detroit make sense? The Tigers have several infielders who need playing time, but adding Bregman would be an exciting way to build on the team’s breakout campaign in 2024, and he would bring a much-needed veteran presence in the middle of an otherwise ultra-young lineup. The same could be said about an emerging Nationals team, which hasn’t yet found success like Detroit but has a talented core on the rise — and a wide-open hole at third base that the prospect of Brady House isn’t likely to happen anytime soon fill up. .
While there are certainly intriguing landing spots around the league for Bregman, Houston still seems like the most likely destination on paper. However, that is no guarantee, and the hot stove always manages to surprise us.
