The 2024-2025 NBA season is here! We analyze the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy prospects for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
INDIANA PACERS
End 2023-24
Off-season moves
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Additions: James Wiseman, Johnny Furphy, Tristan Newton, Enrique Freeman
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Deductions: Jalen Smith, Doug McDermott
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Complete roster
The big question: was that a blip on the radar, or the start of something real?
Most of the offseason discussion about which Eastern team has the best chance to dethrone the Celtics has focused on the Knicks and 76ers, following their respective big swings on the wing. But maybe we should take a moment to think about the team that… you know… actually played Boston in the conference finals?
It’s fair to harbor some skepticism that the Pacers repeated a playoff run in which they defeated a Bucks team that was missing Giannis Antetokounmpo (and, for two games, Damian Lillard) and a Knicks team that was end was a MASH unit before they were wiped out by the Celtics. However, that framing gives Indiana short shrift.
Despite postseason injuries, the Pacers defeated the Bucks four times in five regular season tries, allowing them to score 122 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks ran out of gas as Indiana forced them to keep the pedal to the metal, surviving Game 3 and avoiding elimination in Game 6 before winning a Road Game 7 behind the best team-wide shooting performance in NBA playoff history. And while Boston eliminated them in the ECF, it’s worth noting that the Pacers were either leading or tied in the final minute in three of the four games. Even with a defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed, and with All-NBA maestro Tyrese Haliburton missing the last two games, the Pacers were right there.
That is so important in a results-oriented company; as the prophet Dominic Toretto told us, one person’s “almost had” is another’s “never had it.” But while the pessimist might look at the Pacers and see the 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks on the verge of falling back into an unbalanced stasis, a more optimistic breed might see a team making the final four despite that it is still far from being in its final form.
The Pacers return every player who has logged at least 100 postseason minutes, six of whom are 25 years old or younger – a pretty rich source of untapped potential for player development. (That doesn’t include their 2022 and 2023 lottery picks: Bennedict Mathurin, who was shelved in March due to a torn labrum, and Jarace Walker, who was stuck behind Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin on the depth chart.) They had the fourth-best record in the East and third-best net rating after the blockbuster trade for Siakam in mid-January, and was playing on a 50-win pace after the All-Star break.
They did so with Haliburton clearly at least somewhat hampered by hamstring and back injuries, offering hope for even better results from a full-strength version who was arguably the NBA’s best offensive player in the first half. Now they get a full season of the Haliburton-Siakam partnership, which got going late in the regular season before paying off big in the playoffs. Indiana outscored its opponents by 79 points in 383 postseason minutes, with its two All-Stars sharing the floor and scoring a scorching 125.5 points per 100.
With the benefit of a full summer and training camp to tinker with not only that pair, but one of the league’s deepest backcourts – Haliburton, newly extended playoff stars Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell, a healthy Mathurin, emerging Ben Sheppard – head coach Rick Carlisle might have come up with an even more powerful misery-inducing offensive machine. Considering the last iteration finished in the top six [deep breath] offensive efficiency, assist percentage, turnover rate, effective field goal percentage, pace of play, second chance points, fast-break points And points in the paint [cleansing exhale]that should be a terribly intimidating proposition for opposing defenses.
Perhaps just as intimidating: the challenge of finding some new schematic answers to improve a defense that has finished 28th, 26th and 24th in points allowed per possession over the past three seasons, and in the Ranked 22nd in the NBA after the Siakam trade. (The silver lining? The arrow points up!)
There is some defensive talent on the roster – physical and feisty wings Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith; veteran rim protector Myles Turner; Walker, who may be exactly the kind of lean and versatile 4 Indiana needs, but probably not an “above average unit” crop. The beauty of an earth-shattering foul, however, is that it may not be necessary. As Carlisle and Co. but can find a cover workable enough for the Siakam-Turner pairing – one that also mitigates the damage caused by opponents’ continued attacks on Haliburton – to even approximation league average, then we might view last spring’s run not as a flash in the pan, but as the first spark that signals the start of a bright, hot new era in Indiana basketball.
At best
Haliburton stays healthy all the way and guides the Pacers to not only the best offense in the league, but one of the very best in NBA history. With Turner and Siakam developing more chemistry and the young wings emerging at the point of attack, Carlisle can come up with a plan that manages to limit three-pointers without giving up by far the most edge attacks in the league, allowing Indiana to settle. somewhere between 15th and 20th in defensive efficiency – a recipe for 50-plus wins, home field advantage in Round 1 and another deep playoff run.
When everything falls apart
Carlisle can’t plan enough around the personnel deficiencies to prevent the Pacers from continually giving up shop, and the defense from sliding into bottom-five status. As good as that offense can be, even if Haliburton misses time again — they scored at a top-six clip last season when he was off the floor, and their fleet of complementary ballhandlers should be even better — that’s just too big an attack. demand, especially in April and May. Indiana avoids the play-in but bows out in Round 1 against a powerful and better-balanced opponent as questions about how to build a championship-caliber defense around Haliburton grow louder.
Fantasy twist
As one of the fastest and most efficient basketball units last season, the Pacers turned heads as a solid hub for fantasy production. Haliburton played in 69 games despite injuries and averaged at least 20 points with 10 assists for the second straight year. He’s an easy first-rounder in fantasy drafts.
Turner is still an effective shot blocker to take in the fourth round, while Siakam has a safe 20-7-4 floor. I prefer Turner over Siakam in category competitions because Siakam’s defensive numbers are dropping along with his free throw percentage. In points competitions you choose Siakam.
Two late-round guys I like are Nesmith and Nembhard. Both are efficient from the field, sloppy defensively and at a reasonable price. Mathurin is a microwave bucket, but he has yet to prove himself as a viable fantasy asset outside of scoring. — Then Titus
Schedule 2024-25
They just won 47 with Haliburton on a minutes restriction and/or a three-month restriction, half a season of Siakam and a rotation full of young guys just starting to get their feet wet. I would take over.
