Ohio State (9-1) is outscoring opponents by an average scoring margin of 28 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking in the top-10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The main weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, as they rank 91st with a blitz down sack rate of 10.7% and 78th with a 7.2% big play rate on blitz downs. Defensively, OSU is fantastic and ranks first nationally according to SP+. The Buckeyes face the third-fewest deep passing offense in the country, with only 8.2% of passes defensed occurring more than 20 yards down the field. They allow a somewhat high completion rate of 61.8%, which ranks 78th nationally. Ohio State emerged 2-1 from a challenging three-game midseason series against @Oregon (32-31 L), Nebraska (21-17 W) and @Penn State (20-13), in addition to dominating Northwestern at Saturday. They end the season with two all-important home games against Indiana (9-0) and Michigan (5-4).
Indiana has taken the country by storm in HC Curt Cignetti’s first season with the HC of IU program, going a perfect 7-0 heading into their huge Week 10 showdown against the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers reeled off four easy wins in a row to start the year before toppling Maryland 42-28. They continued another four-game Big Ten winning streak before pulling off a taxing 20-15 victory over Michigan, where Indiana had a 97% win expectancy despite the close score. Indiana’s offense is one of the most potent units in the country, ranking second in success rate (55.5%) and fourth in EPA/Play. While Indiana’s 40.2 PPG offense gets a lot of attention, their 15th SP+ defense also ranks 4th in EPA/play and 6th in suppressing explosive plays.
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Game details and how to watch Indiana @ Ohio State
· Date: Saturday November 23, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: Ohio Stadium
· City: Columbus, Ohio
· TV/streaming: FOX
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Indiana @ Ohio State Game Odds – Week 13
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
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Moneyline: Ohio State (-420), Indiana (+365)
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Spread: Ohio State (-10.5)
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Top/Bottom: 54.5 points
This line opened at -11.5 in early trading, but has moved closer to the key number of -10 and is currently at -10.5 on most books. Indiana’s money line is between +320 and +365, while the state of Ohio ranges between -420 and -500. We achieved an initial total of 55.5 points, but in most places the line dropped to 54.5.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Ohio State recently had a three-game stretch against @Oregon, Nebraska and @Penn State with each game decided by 7 or fewer points. The Buckeyes are an even 5-5 ATS, while the undefeated Hoosiers are 8-2. I’ll take Indiana and the +10.5 points early in the week because I think the margin at kickoff is close to -8.5 or less.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Favorites
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Ohio State +320
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Oregon +450
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Georgia +500
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Texas +500
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Alabama +750
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Ole Miss +1100
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Penn State +1800
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Notre Dame +2000
Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Northwestern
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State of Ohio: FFifth year Will Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State as he currently leads the nation’s sixth-ranked SP+ offense for an elite blueblood national title contender. He is completing a whopping 72.7% of his throws and is working on future first-round picks in WR Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ brutally efficient passing attack ranks second in success rate and fifth in EPA/dropback, despite only 10.3% of passes being thrown more than 20 yards downfield (118th). Howard’s PFF grade of 84.5 is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous highest mark being 72.7%.
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Indiana: QB Nathan Rourke spent his first four collegiate seasons at Ohio before transferring this offseason, which proved to be a prescient decision, with Rourke leading the Hoosiers to a perfect 10-0 record. He completes 71.5% of his passes (#5 in FBS) with a sensational 21-4 TD/INT ratio and a PFF grade of 91.4, tied with Jaxson Dart for first in the nation. He also stretches the field, ranking 10th among Power Four programs with an ADOT of 10.1 yards, so his elite completion percentage isn’t a product of checkdowns or manufactured short touches.
Betting trends and recent statistics
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Ohio State’s opponents hold the ball an average of 30.3 seconds per play, which is the longest plays per second of any defense in the FBS. OSU D ranks first nationally in points per scoring opportunity (2.26) and Red Zone touchdown rate (30%)
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Quinshon Judkins (OSU) has averaged 6.2 yards from scrimmage per touch this season – 3rd best among Big Ten Running Backs; TreVeyon Henderson runs for 10+ yards on 27% of his carries (21/78), the highest mark in FBS.
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Not only is Indiana winning games outright, they are up 8-2 against the spread which is comfortably the largest coverage margin in FBS. The Hoosiers’ prolific offense is also responsible for their 7-3 record against the Over.
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Indiana receivers have gained 2,365 yards on 152 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season, which ranks 11th among FBS pass catchers. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 yards per reception this season, which ranks third among Power Four defenses.
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
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