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India’s Modi could win third term, polls predict

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to come to power for the third time in a row, according to exit polls.

Analysts warn that the polls, published by various news agencies, have often been wrong in the past and are not impartial.

However, they have placed Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the frontrunner in the general election.

The BJP, the main opposition Congress party and regional rivals battled each other in a fierce campaign over seven phases of polls.

The results will be announced on June 4.

A party or coalition needs 272 seats in parliament to form a government.

The BJP-led coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), will exceed this target – according to exit polls, which predict it will win almost two-thirds of the seats.

In his first remarks after voting ended, Modi claimed victory without referring to the exit polls.

“I can say with confidence that the people of India voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he wrote on X, without providing evidence of his claim.

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VARANASI, INDIA - FEBRUARY 17: Indian Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi (sitting atop a vehicle, dressed in white) takes part in a roadshow as part of his 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra' (India Come Together Anew Tour) on 17 February 2024 in Varanasi, India

India’s main opposition Congress has accused the BJP of trying to silence opponents, which the BJP denies [Getty Images]

What do the exit polls say?

Prime Minister Modi came into these elections with resounding popularity, but his main rival – Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi – and a coalition of opposition parties gained significant momentum over the course of the protracted election campaign.

Now a total of six exit polls predict big wins for the BJP-led NDA, but such surveys are not always reliable.

While individual figures vary, they predict the NDA will get between 355 and 380 seats.

According to news agency Reuters, the INDIA bloc is expected to get between 125 and 165 seats.

On its own, the BJP could win around 327 seats, which does not quite meet the target of 370 seats.

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Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hold the image of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during an election campaign in New Delhi on May 18, 2024, ahead of the fifth phase of polling for the country's ongoing general election.  (Photo by Arun SANKAR/AFP) (Photo by ARUN SANKAR/AFP via Getty Images)Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hold the image of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during an election campaign in New Delhi on May 18, 2024, ahead of the fifth phase of polling for the country's ongoing general election.  (Photo by Arun SANKAR/AFP) (Photo by ARUN SANKAR/AFP via Getty Images)

Mr. Modi is one of the most popular leaders India has seen in recent decades [Getty Images]

A really big election

India is the most populous country in the world, with a population of 1.4 billion, and holding national elections is nothing short of a Herculean task.

About 969 million citizens were eligible to cast their votes, equal to the populations of the US, Russia, Japan, Great Britain, Brazil, France and Belgium.

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What made headlines this election?

Polling stations for the elections, which closed just hours ago, started on April 19.

The season was marked by fiery speeches from (some controversial) politicians, countless rallies, rants, taunts and propaganda, as political parties tried to outsmart their opponents – on the ground and even online.

And there was no shortage of incidents that made headlines. The arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in a liquor policy case, days before the elections began, drew sharp criticism from opposition leaders and even sections of the media.

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Opposition leaders accused the BJP government of silencing rivals and denying them a level playing field – which the BJP denies.

A court granted bail to Kejriwal on May 10 as he wanted to campaign for the elections. However, he has to go back to prison on June 2.

The elections were also overshadowed by reports of politicians and party workers tampering with voting machines, Muslims in some areas being denied their right to vote and parties flouting the Model Code of Conduct – guidelines issued by the Election Commission of India (ECI) to ensure free elections. and fair elections.

Opposition leaders also accused the commission of not acting on their complaints against the BJP – a claim the ECI has denied.

NEW DELHI, INDIA - MAY 25: Voters queue up to cast their votes during the sixth phase of the Loksabha elections at a polling station in Rajiv Nagar on May 25, 2024 in New Delhi, India.  Polling for the sixth phase of the general elections has been completed in 58 constituencies in six states and two Union Territories, including all seven seats in Delhi.  According to the Election Commission's Voter Turnout App, the voter turnout during phase 6 in six states and two Union Territories was around 58.84 percent.  (Photo by Sanchit Khanna/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)NEW DELHI, INDIA - MAY 25: Voters queue up to cast their votes during the sixth phase of the Loksabha elections at a polling station in Rajiv Nagar on May 25, 2024 in New Delhi, India.  Polling for the sixth phase of the general elections has been completed in 58 constituencies in six states and two Union Territories, including all seven seats in Delhi.  According to the Election Commission's Voter Turnout App, the voter turnout during phase 6 in six states and two Union Territories was around 58.84 percent.  (Photo by Sanchit Khanna/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

Voting in India is a mammoth exercise, with millions of people lining up to vote at every stage [Getty Images]

What did people vote for in this election?

The inauguration of the Ram Temple, one of the BJP’s biggest election promises this election, and the government’s welfare schemes are expected to benefit the ruling party.

But high unemployment and price increases, especially in food and fuel, were also at the top of many voters’ minds.

The elections also took place amid accusations from the opposition, activists and global rights groups that Indian democracy is under threat. It’s an issue that may have influenced the way people cast their votes.

Read more election stories in India

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