Starting the season 1-3 isn’t the end of the world, but for a team with championship aspirations like the Milwaukee Bucks, it’s an uncomfortable start.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard still haven’t found their groove, and it’s clear this partnership needs more time and help. Khris Middleton is still sidelined. The core is aging, the bank is weak and the prospect pool is almost non-existent. To make matters worse, the Bucks don’t own a single draft pick until 2031. And oh yeah: Doc Rivers is the coach. Did the Milwaukee title window quietly close?
I bet the Giannis Era Bucks will go down in history as one-and-done champions. And in any case there is nothing wrong with that. Their 2021 title run was one for the ages, with Giannis looking like he would be sidelined by a major injury, only to return, dominate and drop 50 points in the clincher.
Of course, there are no certainties in the NBA. Transactions and surprises happen. Injuries occur. Just ask the 2019 Raptors.
The Giannis-Dame duo still has a chance to flourish. Statistically, they still rank highly when Giannis screens for Lillard. This is despite the fact that Giannis is a mediocre screener. He often steps into the defender and makes light contact before sliding to the rim, while Brook Lopez will make hard contact at an angle that gives Lillard a runway to the rim or space to get into his jumper. For now, Lopez is setting almost double the number of screens for Lillard than Giannis. So Giannis needs to improve and prioritize this area, even if it means getting fewer shots himself.
Milwaukee acquired Lillard for good reasons. And after a down year, he now looks as spry as he did during the 2022-23 season in Portland, when he averaged a career-high 32.2 points on 64.5% true shooting. At some point, the Bucks will likely hit over .500, Giannis and Dame will have some standout performances, and Middleton will return. There will be a sense of optimism in Milwaukee, at least for a while.
The problem applies to virtually everyone else on the roster. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack reliable shooting; they rank 18th in 3-point percentage and 23rd in attempts. And when Lopez isn’t on the floor, the Bucks’ defense falls apart. The sample size is small, but the Bucks go from a modest defensive rating of 112.1 with Lopez to 122.3 with Bobby Portis. Portis gets a five-minute window where he hits every shot, but that doesn’t make up for his inability to box out, his ball stopping and his blindfolded defensive awareness.
Jrue Holiday’s absence has left a void in perimeter defense and reliability that Milwaukee has been unable to replace. The trade of Holiday for Lillard was intended to boost the offense, but the team now feels vulnerable defensively. Gary Trent Jr. hasn’t been jumping around for nothing; he is not the answer.
In Sunday’s Bucks loss to the Celtics, Boston had shooters at every position — including Holiday — while Milwaukee made just a quarter of its triples attempts. The depth difference became visible across the board. The Celtics have two of the NBA’s best backups at their respective positions: point guard Payton Pritchard, who they drafted and developed, and center Luke Kornet, who they acquired when he was just 25. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a wasteland of former players. , busted draft picks and unprepared youngsters.
Bucks general manager Jon Horst had a chance to surround Giannis with the right talent, but he’s disappointed. For years, Milwaukee has traded away draft picks or opted for raw prospects with potential rather than immediate impact. Since taking over as GM in 2017, Horst has drafted six players in the top 40:
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DJ Wilson, 17th in 2017
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Donte DiVincenzo, 17th in 2018
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MarJon Beauchamp, 24th in 2022
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Andre Jackson, 36th in 2023
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AJ Johnson, 23rd in 2024
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Tyler Smith, 33rd in 2024
DiVincenzo has been a hit, although he only came out after the Bucks traded him for an old, fading Serge Ibaka. Jackson still has potential, but his shaky jumper makes him a challenge to play next to Giannis.
But after Wilson, the following players were drafted in the first round: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White and Josh Hart. All six remain productive players. Wilson plays for the Shanghai Sharks.
And Johnson’s pick in the 2024 draft is one of the most puzzling picks in recent history. Johnson weighs 167 pounds. Last year he averaged 2.9 points on 42% true shooting in Australia. He’s two years away from being two years away. Yet the Bucks — a team with a 36-year-old center, a 34-year-old point guard, a 33-year-old two guard and a soon-to-be 30-year-old face of the franchise — chose it. to wait for the slim chance of him ever turning into something. Meanwhile, there were still more NBA-ready rookies on the board, like Suns forward Ryan Dunn, who is one of the best defenders to enter the NBA in recent memory, making over 40% of his 3s so far .
Horst was instrumental in building a championship team around Giannis, acquiring Lopez, Jrue Holiday and PJ Tucker, firing Jason Kidd and hiring Mike Budenholzer. But a GM who went all-in for a title now faces the costs of win-now decisions when his margin moves haven’t worked out. Trading away every pick through 2031 depletes assets before the trade deadline, and young players also no longer have value for game-changing acquisitions. In the years since he won it all, he has fallen short on every draft pick and struck out on every swing in the late second round and undrafted phase (although AJ Green is a hustler). And other decisions didn’t pan out, whether it was DiVincenzo-for-Ibaka, five second-round picks for the failed Jae Crowder, or hiring Adrian Griffin and firing him only to hire Doc.
If the team continues to stumble, Rivers will likely become the scapegoat. And in some ways that’s fair. This system feels old and slow. There is also a lack of spirit. On the one hand, how much can a coach do with an aging core, few resources and a depleted bench? On the other hand, even the best squad can flounder under the wrong coach. Just ask the Magic, Celtics and Clippers about Doc’s track record with three 3-1 leads and five 3-2 leads. But right now, the Bucks have to worry about winning games before they think about winning playoff series.
This season is about more than wins for the Bucks. It’s about proving they’re still title contenders – and showing Giannis they’re worthy of his loyalty.
