Not long ago, the Toronto Blue Jays seemed on the cusp of becoming baseball’s next big team. They had talent, a good mix of veterans and young players, strong starting pitching and a bullpen that could close the door. And with a young duo ready to take the world by storm in the form of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, everyone believed it was their turn.
But as baseball often shows in its own cruel way, no one is entitled to anything. And what may be today is never guaranteed tomorrow.
After reaching the postseason the past two seasons and promptly being defeated by the Mariners and Twins respectively, the Blue Jays have regressed thus far in 2024. Toronto is 19-23, last in the AL East, and seemingly unable to find any level of consistency. .
When trying to figure out what went wrong in Toronto, there is a clear decline across the roster. In the rotation, Alek Manoah’s 180 from Cy Young finalist to afterthought is a bizarre situation that has not yet been resolved. Despite great starts from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi this year, Manoah’s lingering struggles and a slow start from Kevin Gausman (4.95 ERA) have been difficult to overcome. Additionally, Toronto’s bullpen has not been reliable, as evidenced by a 5.03 ERA, which ranks third-worst in the MLB.
But the biggest problem comes from Toronto’s offense, which was once the team’s biggest strength. This season, the Blue Jays’ lineup has been anemic, ranking 29th in the MLB in runs scored. Most of the offensive decline has come from first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s struggles. and shortstop Bo Bichette, a duo that was once the envy of many baseball teams.
Since his first full season in 2021, Bichette has consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball. From ’21 to ’23, he slashed .298/.339/.476, and his 555 hits were third-most in the MLB. But this season was a different story. Bichette looked lost at the plate, hitting to the tune of a .227/.287/.320 slashline with just two home runs and a 77 wRC+. His struggles have led to manager John Schneider moving his former leadoff hitter to sixth in the lineup in response to his lack of production.
An even bigger problem from a production perspective could be Guerrero’s dip over the past two seasons. Vlad Jr. arrived in the big leagues in 2019 with as much hype and expectation as any prospect in the past decade. And his third season in 2021 produced what appeared to be the next young superstar starting to blossom. That year, Guerrero slashed .311/.401/.601, crushing an AL-leading 48 home runs. If not for the existence of Shohei Ohtani, Guerrero would have walked away with the AL MVP Award.
Since that monster season, Vladdy hasn’t been able to deliver an encore or continue his development into one of MLB’s best players. His numbers have been fine, with a combined .804 OPS the past two seasons and a similar start to ’24. But after that glimpse of what his ceiling could be in ’21 — not to mention a Blue Jays roster built with him as the expected center — it’s not going to work out. Toronto’s success depends on Vlad Jr. is great, and not just okay. Without him, the entire offensive equation starts to fall apart.
If the Blue Jays were playing in this year’s AL Central, NL Central or even the AL West, sleepwalking through the first seven weeks of the season might not be as concerning. But they play in an AL East with two World Series contenders: the Orioles and Yankees, a Rays team that is always in the mix for the postseason and a Red Sox team that is much better than expected. That leaves Toronto as the team with the worst record in the division and the only team playing less than inspired baseball.
Midway through the 2022 season, Blue Jays president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and the team decided to fire former manager Charlie Montoyo and turn to Schneider, a move that helped spark a run to the postseason. It’s not too early to wonder what Toronto will do if they can’t play better baseball in June, and whether there will be another change at the helm. It’s also not too early to ask where the Blue Jays stand on the trade deadline and how far they can go into seller mode.
Going from second place in the Shohei Ohtani Sweepstakes to facing a teardown at the trade deadline before the end of May is probably not the way the Blue Jays thought this season would go. But there’s something north of the border with far bigger problems than a few hot streaks could solve.
Sooner or later, Toronto’s front office will have to decide if their window is officially closed. The baseball gods may have already decided for them.
