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Biden’s performance during the debates is increasing pressure to withdraw from the race for the presidency.
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Experts said it is not too late, but a decision to stop could lead to chaos, just like in 1968.
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Biden could say he’s not running, resign as president, or face delegate defections.
Can Democrats replace President Joe Biden as White House president?
After the president’s failed debate performances on Thursday, this question may be on many people’s minds.
And as Business Insider previously wrote, history can usually tell us what might happen.
In 1968, when Chairman Lyndon B. Johnson dropped out of the race, his vice president, Hubert Humphreyentered the Democratic primary, but he was too late to get on some states’ ballots.
Humphrey gathered a larger number of delegates than his rivals, Robert F Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, but did not have the majority needed for the nomination.
This led to a contentious Democratic National Convention in Chicago, marked by violent protests.
The country, already dealing with the Vietnam War and the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., was thrown into shock and mourning when Kennedy, the latter’s younger brother, died. President John F. Kennedywas murdered in Los Angeles.
The delegates ultimately voted to appoint Humphrey as their nominee, but he ultimately lost the election to former Vice President Richard Nixon.
Biden can choose not to act, but it could lead to chaos
If Biden were to drop out of the race before August, when Democrats will formally nominate a candidate in Chicago, another contentious convention would likely take place.
Mitch Robertson, a lecturer in modern US political history at University College London, told BI that such a scenario would be reminiscent of the tumultuous events of 1968. He called the comparison apt, but also dispiriting.
Robertson said that, as in 1968, which was accelerated when Johnson announced he would not run for president, Biden would have to make the decision to reject his party’s nomination.
Like Johnson, he could also pledge to serve out the remainder of his term.
Still, there would be a scramble to find his successor, as there is no formal mechanism for Biden to automatically appoint his successor.
Robertson said the trial could be bad news for Democrats.
“The lessons of 1968 and the 1968 convention in particular have always stood out in the Democratic mind and in American political history as an unmitigated disaster,” he said.
In 1968, it led to chaos and an election loss, which Robertson said was the Democrats’ greatest fear of a contested convention, “that it would do the same thing again.”
It will take a majority of the roughly 4,000 pledged delegates to win the party’s nomination. In the primaries and caucuses, Biden won 3,900 delegates.
Thomas Gift, director of UCL’s Center on US Politics, explained that if Biden withdraws and the DNC rules do not change, his pledged delegates would no longer engage, potentially leading to lobbying and voting for a replacement.
“I think that’s still quite unlikely, but it’s more likely than it was before last night,” he told BI.
Gift said one of the biggest challenges is that there is “no clear heir to the throne.”
Normally the vice president is the designated person, but Gift said Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval ratings are too low to be a serious candidate.
“I think a lot of people want to throw their hat in the ring,” he said. “I think it has the potential to create a lot of disorder, chaos and conflict within the party.”
Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the University of Surrey who researches the US presidential election, said the “best chance” is for Biden to declare his support for a strong new candidate before the party’s conference in August.
Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, are seen as potential candidates.
Shanahan continued: “The worst-case scenario for Democrats is that there is no clear succession by the time the party convention takes place. That convention will effectively become an ‘open party convention’ and who will take on Trump in November will be determined by a divided party. battle on the party floor in Chicago.”
Biden could resign, but Harris would not automatically become the nominee
Biden could go a step further. Under great pressure, he could resign as president.
It would make Harris president, but not necessarily a candidate.
“Even if Kamala Harris is president, it still doesn’t mean Biden can say, ‘All my delegates are now hers,’” Iwan Morgan, professor emeritus of American history at UCL’s Institute of the Americas, told BI.
“The rules are very clear,” he said. “You are tied to a certain person on the first ballot.”
The delegates would not automatically switch to Harris, so she would still have to win a majority of delegates at the convention. According to Morgan, that would involve a lot of ‘horse trading’ and intensive lobbying activities.
Delegates can defect
Another scenario, which experts say is quite unlikely, is that delegates defect en masse.
“Unchartered waters can’t even describe it,” Morgan said. “Yes, they could do that, but it would have to be coordinated.”
Although delegates are not legally bound to their candidates, they are largely assumed to be loyal.
The current rules of the DNC state that “delegates elected to the national convention who endorse a presidential candidate must honestly reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”
Theoretically this offers some leeway, but not much.
“The point is that the DNC is under Biden’s control,” he said. “It’s just a question of what kind of influence can be exerted on Biden.”
It’s not too late, but it wouldn’t be easy
Morgan said Democrats still have time because the “real” election campaign typically doesn’t start until Labor Day in September.
However, he added that for a smooth process, “the sooner they can move Biden, the better chance they have of preparing for the convention.”
John Owens, professor of American government and faculty member at American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, told BI via email that “given Biden’s insistence on this early debate, there may be plenty of time for Democrats to turn the tide .”
But he said it will be a tall order and it will depend on the party’s flexibility and the state rules and regulations that make it possible.
Owens said one thing is clear to him: “Biden is toast, and if the Democrats don’t turn this around, it might be toast to American democratic procedures and culture as well.”
Read the original article on Business Insider
