There are a few tournaments on the schedule that the PGA Tour’s biggest names are skipping to rest and prepare for the grueling season.
The John Deere Classic is one such event. If you look at the entry list, you’ll see that big names like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schaffuele are missing. But fear not; fan favorite Jordan Spieth (+2000) has decided to tee off at the TPC Deere Run this week.
It feels strange to have Spieth in a field where he is the biggest name in golf, but not the favorite for the tournament. That honor belongs to Sungjae Im (+1400). Some will blindly bet on Spieth, given his name and success on tour. I’ll pass. Given the current state of his game, I’d need at least +3500 before I’d consider placing a bet on him.
To be honest, the golfers’ prices feel dirty because of the lack of power in the field. I bet on a golfer whose price is much lower than I would like, but that’s the game we play. Take the best golfers at the best prices. Sometimes the price you write on your paper is higher than the sportsbook. Then it becomes a numbers game. You calculate the full hold of the event, compare your prices to the listed prices, and make the best bets based on perceived value.
Regardless, the JDC should be a lot of fun to watch this week. Defending champion Sepp Straka (+1600) won this event last season at 21-under. The year before that, JT Poston (+2800) won at 21-under, and in 2021, Lucas Glover won at 19-under. With rain on Tuesday and expected morning showers on Thursday, the course should be softer and more accessible to the field.
These are the key metrics I used when developing my primary scoring model
Key statistics related to success
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Driving accuracy
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Driving distance
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Strokes Gained Approach
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SG: Set
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Par 5 Score
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Par 4: 400-450 meters
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Proximity: 125-150 meters
John Deere Classic Best Bets
Davis Thompson wins +2200
Mr. Davis Thompson is one of those golfers from the University of Georgia who are damn good PGA Tour pros. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but with three top-10 finishes this season, it feels like his time is coming.
After finishing T9 at the US Open two weeks ago and finishing second at Rocket Mortgage last week, I’m excited to have a bet on him to win this course. I can see him having some success.
Thompson isn’t terribly accurate off the tee, hitting the fairways at just 60%. Given the accuracy of the last three winners, he could be in for a tough challenge, but I’ll base my judgment on his skill and form to determine if he wins this tournament.
Thompson is a beast on par 5s. The three par 5s are three of the four easiest holes on the course. All three have birdie percentages of 32.1% or higher.
He’s also rock solid around the green and hits a lot of greens in regulation. If his driver and putter are good this week, everything in between should propel him to a nice Sunday finish.
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Aaron Rai top 20 (-120)
There may be no better course than Aaron Rai this week. At TPC Deere Run, you want to bet on golfers who are accurate off the tee and highly skilled second-shot golfers. Rai is just that.
After a close call at Rocket Mortgage, there will be some questions about Rai’s emotional state. Unless you’re Scheffler, it’s not easy to play for four days and come back the next week and play at the highest level.
Rai was a dog on the course last week. There were times when he might have picked the wrong club or made a bad decision; but apart from that he played phenomenal golf. He was impressive, hitting the fairways at a high clip; his second shot was precise with his irons and his putter was red hot.
Good play is nothing new for Rai in the last few months, with four top-20 finishes in his previous six starts.
For the rest of my John Deere Classic bets, visit my X.com page.
