(Bloomberg) — The first two years of Donald Trump’s second term could be “quite impactful” as policy changes are made on taxes, deregulation and crypto, said Stefan Gratzer, managing director at JP Morgan Private Bank.
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“One really distinctive thing that Trump had in his policy was on crypto, so let’s see how this plays out,” Gratzer, head of institutional asset management for Switzerland at JP Morgan, told a conference in Kuwait on Sunday. “This could be completely new, and no one knows what this will mean. There is a lot of talk about deregulation, which is clearly beneficial for banks like us at the moment, but again, we have to see.”
Optimism is high that Trump’s pro-growth promises, built around tax cuts and deregulation, will deliver a new round of gains in an already booming economy, just as the Federal Reserve is leaning toward an easy-money attitude. Many expect Trump’s policy promises, including a wave of tax cuts, to boost economic growth and drive new business for lenders.
Gratzer said Trump’s plans to cut taxes are critical. “When you buy a share of the company, you are obviously buying the future earnings minus the tax. If taxes are lower, your stock price is higher. I think that’s kind of what we’ve seen this past week.”
“He clearly has the House and Senate on his side now, so we may see this direction over the next year or two,” Gratzer said, noting that after the 2026 midterm elections “it might not be that simple to do those things.”
US Republicans regained control of the Senate in last week’s elections and are favored to retain their majority in the House of Representatives, although some races remain undecided.
In addition, JP Morgan Private Bank is seeing customer demand in the Middle East and North Africa that “reflects our pipeline in technology, especially AI,” Gratzer told the MoneyTech event.
According to Gratzer, energy markets and the energy transition are “really relevant” in the region, both in terms of technology and transport, namely electric vehicles. Luxury is another area customers are focusing on, while defense and education also need more investment. There are also opportunities in healthcare, according to Gratzer.
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