There are a number of statistics that show that Justin Jefferson had the best first four years of any wide receiver in NFL history. In any case, the man is a ridiculously good player.
There’s also the basic understanding that the defense needs to play against Jefferson specifically, making him a beneficial impact for the Minnesota offense even if the ball isn’t coming his way.
With a new quarterback, JJ McCarthy, who was on a rookie deal and entering a season where Las Vegas believes the Vikings will finish last in the NFC North, signing Jefferson to a four-year, $140 million contract ($110 million guaranteed) was ) logically .
This is not to question Jefferson or his contract. Good for him. Good for the Vikings.
That said, salary cap allocation to a single player is often calculated based on two factors: A) the premium nature of the position and its impact on the game; B) the supply of talent to meet that demand.
Traditionally, that first criteria has centered around three or four positions: quarterback, edge rusher, left offensive tackle (to protect the quarterback) and shutdown cornerback. Even then, the values fluctuate.
There is no survival without a quarterback. Everything else is secondary. No one in Kansas City regrets allocating 16.6% of the team’s 2023 cap to Patrick Mahomes, according to Spotrac.com. If anything, it was a bargain.
The Chiefs are willing to bet 24.24 percent, 23.48 percent and 20.71 percent on Mahomes in the 2025-2027 seasons.
However, Mahomes is both the best player at the most impactful position and also the best player at the most impactful position where there are no alternatives – namely good, let alone great, replacements. There aren’t 32 good quarterbacks in the world. You can look at the bottom of the leaderboard to see which teams don’t have one.
Simply put, if you don’t have a great quarterback, you can’t win. And lately, you can’t win the Super Bowl if you don’t have Mahomes. So you pay.
Wide receivers are completely different. That’s why especially in an age of advanced analytics and several generations past, the concept of Moneyball placing numerical value on almost everything in sports (especially money), the Jefferson deal and the massive monetary growth it represents is startling.
And perhaps temporarily. We will see.
Jefferson’s $35 million per year deal makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history (at least for now). It’s part of an offseason that saw huge deals for fellow receivers AJ Brown ($32 million per year in Philadelphia), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($30 million in Detroit) and Jaylen Waddle ($28.3 million in Miami) .
Dallas and CeeDee Lamb are now on the clock and can challenge Jefferson’s number.
Jefferson’s cap in Minnesota will be 13.39 percent in 2026, 13.87 percent in 2027 and 14.15 percent in 2028. It’s likely the salary cap will rise in those later years (it’s already risen to $255.4 million for 2024), but still that’s a lot of resources for a single wide receiver.
As brilliant as Jefferson has been, he’s only averaged 6.53 receptions per game in his career. That’s not to discount the 30 touchdowns or the 98.31 receiving yards per game, or how he opens up the Vikings run game or other receivers.
But how many of those 6.53 receptions could Justin Jefferson and only Justin Jefferson make? In other words, how much more productive is he than the next receiver – the old Value Over Replacement Player?
A QB has the ball in his hands almost every offensive play. An elite left tackle plays all three downs and is involved in every play.
The Vikings think he’s worth it and Jefferson is such a unique performer that he very well could be. What about all these other wide receivers, though?
The NFL once placed enormous value on running backs, but realized that the supply of good running backs exceeded demand. An incomparable talent like Derrick Henry or a multi-purpose weapon like Christian McCaffrey could still command a premium, but that’s about it. Most teams would prefer three lower-paid guys to share the load and stay fresh than one whistleblower who could always be out due to injury, just like in the past.
As a result, running backs now have the fourth-lowest average salary ($1.8 million) in the NFL per Spotrac, ahead of only fullback ($1.7 million), punter ($1.5 million) and long snapper ($1.1 million). And only six teams enter the 2024 season with more than 4.3 percent of their cap space at this position. Last year’s Super Bowl featured the 49ers, who spent 2.65 percent of their cap at the position of McCaffrey and the Chiefs, who had a rate of 2.06 percent.
Football is awash with great receivers right now. Perhaps it is the spread of 7-a-side football at youth level, where wideout is highly valued. Maybe they’re great athletes who shy away from running backs. Maybe it’s the pass-happy college game. Maybe it’s just cyclical.
Whatever it is, a record seven wideouts were taken in the first round in 2024. The average for 2020-2023 was 5.25. That’s a lot more than the 3.4 first rounds from 2010-2019.
Even then, you can find young wide receivers all over the draft. Deebo Samuel of San Francisco was a second rounder. Detroit took St. Brown in the fourth round. The Chiefs found Tyreek Hill in the fifth, the same place the Los Angeles Rams landed Puka Nacua a year ago.
How many teams will look at rising salaries and think they can get a replacement on the cheap?
Kansas City traded Hill and still won two Super Bowls. Of course, Tennessee traded AJ Brown for the 18th pick in the draft in 2022, used it on wideout Treylon Burks and seemingly regretted it, at least so far.
There is no one way to build a roster. Maybe paying big bucks to big receivers is the new way. Or maybe this is just a curious blip on the Moneyball radar.
