This article first appeared in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.
Hello, friends. Election Day is less than three weeks away.
3 things to know
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Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump spoke directly to Latter-day Saint voters this weekend for the first time this cycle. Addressing “the LDS community here” at an event in Arizona, Harris said we “have more in common than what divides us.” Trump, meanwhile, spoke Sunday during a virtual call to Latter-day Saint voters, saying he shares “the same values” as Latter-day Saints. Read more here.
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Another religious group has become a target for Trump: the Amish. In Pennsylvania, home to about 80,000 Amish people, a group of Trump supporters is running a voter registration program specifically targeting Amish voters. I spent a few days in Lancaster County to find out why they believe “the Amish vote” can influence the election – and whether Amish people are on board. Read more here.
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Abortion is on the ballot in 10 states in November. In Arizona, where voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights, reproductive rights have become a central part of the final stretch of the election. That has forced both campaigns to approach their turnout efforts on the ground differently: Harris continued to prioritize reproductive rights as a central part of her message, while the Trump campaign’s push for states’ rights has hit a political snag. Read more here.
Harris’ Spanish problem
Tonight, Trump will participate in a town hall on Univision, the top Spanish-language news TV network in the U.S., with a specific goal: chipping away at Harris’ lead among Spanish-speaking voters.
The uncomfortable truth for Harris’ campaign? Trump may already be well on his way.
Right now, Harris is on track to perform worse among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in two decades: A new New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris at 56% among Hispanic voters, compared with Trump’s 37%.
The good news for Democrats is that Hispanics, who have long been a solid Democratic voting bloc, will make up nearly 15% of the electorate in November — a record high. The bad news is that Democrats have slowly lost support from Hispanics in each of the past cycles. Barack Obama won 71% of Hispanic voters in 2012; since then, Hillary Clinton won 68% and Joe Biden 62%.
Harris, who currently sits in the mid-50s among Hispanics, will join John Kerry (in 2004) as the last Democratic nominee to finish below 60%.
Of course, it could be much worse. Earlier this year, with Biden at the top of the ticket, Democrats were deadlocked with Trump on the Hispanic vote. (One poll, with a small sample size, showed Trump up by six percentage points.) Harris managed to reverse these trends and widen her lead among Hispanics to nearly twenty percentage points. But she still lags far behind the performance of previous Democratic nominees.
Why the shift? Some of it could be the natural result of the changing demographics called the “Hispanic voting bloc.” Most Hispanics living in the US are not immigrants, and Hispanic voters are now primarily US-born, English-speaking individuals.
I’ve written about Harris’s recognition of this, marked by a shift in messaging toward Hispanics: Instead of talking about immigration, she talks almost exclusively about the economy. That’s something many Hispanic strategists and experts, including Mike Madrid, have been begging Harris to do for months, and she continued it at her Univision town hall last week. Polls show that Latinos, now the largest minority group in the country, care about the issues everyone else cares about. Harris’ change in message seems to recognize that economic policy, not identity politics, will do more to win over this group.
A new study seems to support this. Members of the US Hispanic Business Council were asked which ticket – Harris/Walz or Trump/Vance – “better represents the interests of your community.” A majority sided with Harris. But when asked who is better suited to tackle economic issues, Hispanic respondents – largely made up of small business owners – overwhelmingly supported Trump (65%) over Harris (35%).
When asked who they would vote for in this year’s election, Trump led 57% to 41%.
Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the US Hispanic Business Council, said the survey showed Harris’ ability to connect with Hispanic voters. “I think they’re saying, ‘We’re Hispanic entrepreneurs, and as Hispanics we can relate more easily to an African-American woman who is the daughter of an immigrant than to a white billionaire,’” he said. .
But that’s not enough to win their votes, he said: “It’s like I’m almost rooting for you, but I’m not going to vote for you. I’m going to vote for the guy who I think will do better for the economy and therefore do better for my business.’”
When the same poll was conducted in May, Trump led Biden by 10 percentage points.
In an effort to shore up support among Hispanics, the Harris campaign hosted a series of Hispanic Heritage Month events across the Southwest. In Arizona, the campaign launched a “Hombres con Harris” coalition; in Nevada, it organized “Café con Latinos” events in coffee shops.
But Harris appears so vulnerable among Hispanics that a Republican group is throwing money at a last-ditch gamble in a deep blue state. In New Mexico, where no Republican presidential candidate has won since 2004, Election Freedom Inc. an opening among the state’s Hispanic voters, who make up a majority — 49% — of the population.
According to Derek Dufresne, a consultant to the group, the group is making a “significant seven-figure investment” in advertising there. The English and Spanish ads will appear on TV and digital platforms.
Currently, Harris leads by 8 percentage points in New Mexico, but Election Freedom Inc. senior adviser Jay McClesky said internal polling shows the race is much closer. A poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, shows Harris with a four-point lead in New Mexico.
“We have seen the race tighten to just outside the margin of error, while President Trump has actually taken a lead among Hispanic men,” he said. “We believe this trend puts New Mexico in play as we enter the final stretch.”
Poll pulse
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Trump leads Harris 50% to 45% among Catholic voters in the seven battleground states, according to a new poll from the National Catholic Reporter. Catholics make up about a quarter of the electorate in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
What I read
About immigration – the presidential election has quickly become a battle of “who has the most aggressive bona fides” on immigration, writes Reason’s Fiona Harrigan. This essay delves into the last decades of border policy and explains what is missing from our current discussion about immigration enforcement: “As voters and politicians become increasingly inflexible in their views on what can and should happen at the border, the situation there will – and the debate surrounding it – will only get worse.” How did immigration politics become so toxic? (Fiona Harrigan, Reason)
David Brooks is one of them the growing list of self-identified conservatives who have endorsed Harris. In this essay, Brooks describes how his political journey got him here—and his advice for the next generation of Trump-wary Republicans: “If you’re under 45, stay in the Republican Party and work to make it a healthy one.” , multiracial labor organization. class party. If you are over 45, recognize that the GOP will not be saved in your lifetime and join me on the other side. Confessions of a Republican Exile (David Brooks, The Atlantic)
When will we know who wins the elections? It could be weeks after Election Day (or longer), as Trump has yet to say whether he will accept the results if he loses and he could try to challenge them, as he did in 2020. Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform Act in 2022. , which should prevent challenges from members of Congress on January 6. But the weeks between Election Day and Jan. 6 provide a window for lengthy recounts, lawsuits and widespread misinformation. How Trump might try to cast doubt on the election results if he loses again (Patrick Marley, The Washington Post)
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering substantive issues in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information so you can make an informed decision. Find our full election coverage here.
