The opinions expressed below are those of Jon Keller, not those of WBZ, CBS News or Paramount Global.
BOSTON – Trump lovers are furious. Trump haters are elated. But what matters is the reaction of a small part of the electorate: the undecided voters who won’t make a decision for months.
Some polls suggest they don’t like the idea of a convicted felon candidate. For others, Trump’s judgment and cries of injustice will only increase their skepticism about the system.
But it would be surprising if what happened in that courtroom turned out to be good news for Trump. Just look at the solid vote totals Nikki Haley continues to reap in the Republican primaries. She explicitly stated that Trump’s baggage would hurt the party’s chances and distract voters’ attention from Joe Biden’s shortcomings. Every day we spend from now on spouting overheated rhetoric about how this verdict was an attack on America is a day of reminding these voters what they don’t like about Trump, just as Haley predicted.
Although the Biden campaign just received a political gift, they need to be smart about what they do with it.
Biden wants the vote to be more of a referendum on Trump than on his own performance. Trump himself said that on Thursday the real verdict will come on November 5, indicating that he will step up his efforts to ensure that this election is all about vindicating himself.
That may be catnip to his base, but those crucial swing voters have other concerns and a track record of defeating Trump and his favored candidates, as we saw in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Biden may benefit from Trump returning to full-time campaigning if Trump spends all his time ranting about the verdict and trying to blame Biden, as he likely will. He just can’t control himself.
So the game for Biden is to let the verdict speak for itself and let Trump continue to dig himself a hole by talking about things that swing voters have little interest in. They want to hear what he can do for them, not what he wants them to do for him.
