The 2024 election is on a razor’s edge, with polls predicting one of the closest elections in modern American history.
An early wave of polling stations close at 6pm and 7pm on the East Coast, giving viewers valuable insight into whether the national environment is red or blue – including which messages in disputed areas are winning, which direction the suburbs are heading tend and whether black voters produce results for the Democrats.
The answers will give Americans early insight into the key races for control of Congress and other downballot contests, along with insights into how Vice President Kamala Harris fares against former President Donald Trump.
Some of the early polls close at 6:00 PM ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The only potentially competitive congressional race to watch in those states is Indiana’s 1st District, where Democrat Frank Mrvan is running for re-election. Neither party’s outside groups are involved in the race, but if GOP underdog Randy Niemeyer pulls off an upset, it could portend a red wave.
Both parties believe a surge is unlikely, so other districts will provide better clues about which way the wind is blowing in competitive races for Congress and the big presidential contest between Harris and Trump.
Here are some early bellwethers to watch:
Two Virginia counties offer a glimpse
Two congressional districts in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. ET, could tell the story of the evening: the 2nd District, centered around Virginia Beach, and the 7th District, which includes Fredericksburg. Both districts can be valuable early indicators of how the election is playing out in the suburbs, which are critical to Democratic victories at the polls.
Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is favored in the swinging 2nd District. If she loses to Democratic rival Missy Cotter Smasal, GOP operatives will worry they’re in for a bad night. It could also mean that Democrats’ messages about protecting abortion rights, preserving democracy and rejecting extremism — key themes of Cotter Smasal’s underdog campaign, as well as Harris’s — resonate.
Kiggans is one of 16 Republicans in the House of Representatives running for re-election in districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Biden won this seat in 2020 by just 2 points, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis. So this race could also provide some early clues about the presidential race.
Virginia’s closely divided 7th District pits two political novices and Army veterans against each other: Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson, as Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., leaves the seat to run for governor. Democrats are slight favorites in the district, a mix of urban and rural parts of Northern Virginia, that Biden carried by six points four years ago. Vindman played a role in reporting the Ukrainian phone call that led to Trump’s first impeachment, and his brother, Alexander, testified in those impeachment hearings. Anderson has been dogged by his use of a fake family photo, posing with his friend’s wife and three children to give the impression he is a family man in campaign images.
“If Jen Kiggans were to lose in Virginia Beach, it would be a disappointment. If [Eugene] Vindman lost in Northern Virginia, Virginia-7, which would be a disappointment. And if these races are successful, it will be a reflection of what we expected, which would be a really close race in the House of Representatives,” said Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster at the University of Virginia.
If one party wins both races, they could be in for a strong night across the country.
North Carolina’s 1st District: Black vote test
This North Carolina precinct, where polls close at 7:30 PM ET, will be a valuable early indicator of the Black vote, one of the most important issues of the 2024 election cycle. According to Census data, the closely divided first precinct is 39% black, and both parties have aggressively courted voters there.
The rural district has become a tougher climb for Democrats since Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map late last year. Biden would have won this redrawn district by just one point in 2020. And national Republicans got their preferred candidate, Republican Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, through the primaries to take on first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis.
Essential to capturing the district, and to a possible win for Harris, is strong black voter turnout and avoiding significant defections to Trump as he tries to peel away a slice of young black men. If she fails at either task, it will quickly complicate her path to victory, as well as Democrats’ hopes for a series of races on the ballot.
Are Trump’s tactics working? Or will Harris stand his ground against black voters? Are they very motivated to vote? Or in lower numbers than normal? The results in this district can help answer these questions.
And the answers will have profound consequences across the country, including in North Carolina, one of the seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential election.
Ohio’s 9th District: Trump Country Test
Republicans looking to make gains among working-class voters crucial to the Trump coalition could get some early clues in Ohio’s 9th District, where polls also close at 7:30 PM ET.
Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982, faces Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin in the Toledo-based district, which Trump won by three points in 2020. Kaptur was headed for re-election in 2022 against a deeply flawed opponent, but Republicans are optimistic Merrin can beat her this year.
Kaptur is one of five Democrats running for re-election in districts Trump won in 2020, and her race could be an early indication of whether Democrats can hold on in similar districts. And Kaptur’s ability to outdo Harris will test the electorate’s willingness to “split” their lots between the two parties, a dynamic that also has implications in many Senate races.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
