WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump is poised to begin his second term by sending the Senate an unconventional slate of nominees for powerful positions in the executive branch. He sees his 2024 victory as confirmation of voters’ desire for disruption.
But how much disruption will America’s “cool dish” tolerate?
The soon-to-be Republican-led House is already showing its limits by effectively sinking Trump’s choice of far-right former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., as attorney general amid sexual misconduct allegations and concerns about his qualifications.
The Senate will be split between 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the new session, meaning Republicans cannot lose more than three votes to confirm nominees without some bipartisan support. A 50-50 tie can be broken by newly elected Vice President JD Vance.
Here are nine key senators to watch in the nomination battles.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine
The centrist, five-term Republican is the only remaining Republican senator representing a blue state. She has survived politically thanks to her willingness to occasionally antagonize her party, such as her vote to convict Trump on impeachment for inciting an insurrection on January 6, 2021.
Collins plans to run for re-election in 2026 in a state that Trump just lost by 7 points, meaning she will certainly be a top Democratic target. Trump’s Cabinet picks provide an opening for Collins to demonstrate her independent nature if she chooses to vote against some of his more controversial or radical choices.
An added dynamic for Collins: she is about to become chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee. That gives her a chance to reach bipartisan deals on government spending, but it could also deepen her loyalty to the party that elevates her to that coveted role.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska
As a member of an endangered species known as moderate Republicans, Murkowski will wield a significant amount of power during Senate votes on some of Trump’s more controversial policies and nominees. Murkowski has already shown she will be outspoken in her opposition to Trump’s picks for his Cabinet, telling reporters of the Gaetz pick: “I don’t think it’s a serious nomination for attorney general. That is Lisa Murkowski’s vision.”
Murkowski is also a rare Republican who favors bringing back abortion rights protections included in Roe v. Wade, which could play a role in her votes on health care-related staffing and a possible new Supreme Court vacancy. And she won’t be up for re-election until 2028 in deep red Alaska.
Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.
The new majority leader is not an ultra-MAGA Republican by anyone’s standards, but he understands his mission: to advance the Trump agenda. Thune will have to balance that with the institutional instincts that have earned him respect on both sides of the aisle.
The nominations will be the first big test of his leadership style. Where does he position himself against Trump? Where does he draw the line? Is he choosing to be a heat shield for members who want to quietly criticize Trump without doing so publicly? And how does he manage his relationship with Trump?
The answers will set the tone for a long-awaited new era facing the Republican Senate.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
McConnell is the ultimate free agent, as he relinquishes his position as leader of the Senate Republicans after a record 18 years. His arguments and disagreements with Trump are well documented. As leader of the Republican Party, McConnell’s style has usually been to read the political winds within his party and follow them. Now he doesn’t have to do that. He will be 83 in a few months and has two years left in his Senate term. The Cabinet nominees could be an opportunity to flex his muscles and use his voice to shape Trump’s agenda.
Will McConnell use his influence and reservoir of goodwill within the caucus to say no to some Trump picks? Or will he make the choice to go along with the MAGA leader’s wishes? He has offered one hint so far: While he said nothing publicly, McConnell was one of at least five Republican senators, including Collins and Murkowski, who privately made it clear they would oppose Gaetz for AG.
McConnell is an outspoken Russia hawk who favors NATO and the post-World War II order and has indicated he plans to use the coming years to combat the isolationist forces that have found a home in Trump’s “America First” -agenda. For example, how will he respond to the Russia-sympathetic views of former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence?
Senator Thom Tillis, R-N.C
Tillis is up for re-election in 2026 after winning his first two elections by less than 2 points. He will undoubtedly be a Democratic target in an election year when they have little chance of winning in the Senate. North Carolina is a difficult state even for a Republican. He will have to be nominated by a Republican base that may be attracted to far-right figures and balance that with an appeal to a general electorate in the purple state.
How closely does Tillis stay with Trump in a cycle where, unlike 2020, the president-elect won’t be on the ballot to give him a jacket? The nominations will provide a definitive answer.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.
Heading into Trump’s presidency, Cassidy is expected to take center stage as chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. His committee is expected to review the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services (although the Senate Finance Committee will be tasked with reporting the nomination to the full Senate). And Cassidy, a doctor himself, has been keeping a close eye on how he feels about the vaccine skeptic.
As HELP Chairman, Cassidy will also be deeply involved in all discussions surrounding the future of healthcare policy, including Medicare and Medicaid.
He is up for re-election in 2026, and his vote to convict Trump in his impeachment trial for inciting an insurrection, as well as any potential feud over nominees, could play a role in whether Trump chooses Cassidy or a potential primary to support challenger.
Newly elected Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah
As they step into the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, many wonder whether Curtis will look more like the institutional senator he replaces or like fellow GOP Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, a far-right figure who has become a political senator. Trump ally. The answer may lie somewhere in the middle.
“He’s not Mitt Romney and he’s not Donald Trump. He has his own brand and he was very clear about that during his primaries and his general election,” former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida recently told NBC News.
During his first debate in June, Curtis said of Trump: “I’m not going to give him an unconditional yes to everything he wants.”
Curtis has already made his presence known by joining the private resistance against Gaetz. But Gaetz was just the first real test for Senate Republicans in a second Trump presidency, raising the question: Will Curtis be the same kind of check on Trump that Romney was on both nominees and policy?
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa.
Fetterman has made a name for himself in the halls of the Capitol for his brash, unfiltered way of communicating (and the way he dresses). But Fetterman has also carved out a unique identity by breaking with the left of his party — through his unwavering support for Israel despite the civilian casualties caused by the military campaign in Gaza, and his comment that Democrats “lost ourselves” when it concerned important issues such as immigration. .
In a party currently in soul-searching, Fetterman’s vote could play an important role in that conversation for Democrats. And has expressed willingness to back some of Trump’s picks for Cabinet jobs, including for his former 2022 rival Mehmet Oz to run Medicare and Medicaid.
“He’s going to pick people who don’t agree with me, and they’re never going to be my first choice,” Fetterman told NBC News. “So that’s kind of how democracy works.. … I’m not going to be part of the collective freakouts.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga.
Ossoff faces re-election in 2026 in a state where Trump just snapped a Democratic winning streak dating back to the first-term senator’s election victory in 2020. He will likely be a top GOP target for defeat in the next cycle. The executive nominations could give him some opportunities to demonstrate bipartisan bona fides, at least when it comes to Trump’s more mainstream picks.
The confirmation battle will also provide some early clues about how Ossoff plans to position himself ahead of an undoubtedly difficult reelection bid in Georgia, where Democrats will try to prove that their victories in 2020 and 2022 were no fluke.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
