Dominate your fantasy football leagues with these keys to victory for Week 11.
Best spot of the week: JK Dobbins vs. CIN
Dobbins has had an interesting week. He played his usual 67% of the team’s snaps, but handled just 45% of rush attempts. Gus Edwards returned for this game and immediately saw 10 carries to Dobbins’ 15. We also saw Hassan Haskins get involved in a goal line touchdown in his revenge game against his former team, the Titans.
This caused some panic among Dobbins’ fantasy managers, but I’m here to say, “RELAX.”
Dobbins is fine.
This was Edwards’ most efficient day of the season. This likely led to him earning more volume than we saw him get in weeks 3-4. But Dobbins still handled a team-high 18 chances and was used as the primary passing down back. Expect Dobbins to remain the clear-cut RB1 on the Chargers. He gets a great game at home against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati has the seventh-best rushing performance this season, according to NFL Pro. Start Dobbins with confidence in week 11.
Sketchy spot of the week: Tony Pollard vs. MIN
Pollard produced just 63 scoreless yards in Week 10. This was his worst performance in almost two months. This also happened to be the same week that backup Tyjae Spears returned from a hamstring injury. Spears was efficient, turning his 10 touches into 51 yards while playing a season-high 47% snap. But this needs more context as Pollard left this match for some time with an ankle problem. It’s likely Pollard would have offered more snaps and touches had he not left the game.
Pollard should be doing well, but he has a tough game this week. Pollard and the Titans are six-point underdogs against the Vikings. Minnesota is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season. There’s a chance Spears earns more passing snaps if the Titans fall behind on this one. You can start with Pollard this week, but temper your expectations in this vague place.
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Trending up: Jauan Jennings
Jennings had a strong performance in Week 10, returning from a hip injury and immediately leading the 49ers with 11 goals. He turned this elite target volume into seven catches for 93 yards. This was the first time this season that Jennings primarily lined up as the team’s X-outside receiver. He played the role of Brandon Aiyuk on offense, and it led to fantastic usage and production. Jennings has now produced at least 88 receiving yards in three of his last four completed games.
This week, Jennings finds himself in another quality spot. He will face a Seahawks secondary that is ranked bottom 10 in coverage according to PFF. Seattle allowed 36 points to the 49ers in their Week 6 matchup. In this game, Brock Purdy completed 64% of his passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns. Expect another high-usage game for Jennings. He’s a must-start this week and moving forward.
Trend Down: Brian Thomas Jr.
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Jaguars’ rookie first-round pick. Thomas has been dealing with a pectoral injury for the past two weeks and his prospects for the rest of the season only worsened in Week 10 with Mac Jones as his starting QB. Thomas saw a season-low three goals and caught just two balls for 12 yards. Trevor Lawrence has already been ruled out for Week 11 and his availability for the rest of the season is now in question.
Thomas is an exciting outside receiver who wins with speed and explosiveness down the field. This is a great profile to pair with Lawrence and we’ve seen that combination work wonders this season. But Jones might be the worst-case scenario for Thomas at QB. Jones isn’t known for his arm or his ability to hit consistent pitches downfield. Thomas is falling rapidly in the weekly fantasy rankings and it’s tough to start him this week against the Lions, who rank third in pass rush and coverage this season, according to PFF. Thomas is in week 11.
Review of the week: Ladd McConkey
McConkey is primed for a bounce-back performance in Week 10. The Chargers’ rookie earned a season-low two goals against the Titans. He converted this usage into two catches for 52 yards. It was his worst fantasy finish since Week 2, when he caught two balls for 26 yards. But this was a tough game for the Chargers and McConkey’s passing game. Entering Week 10, the Titans allowed the fewest receiving yards per game, according to NFL Pro. This was only the second time this season that McConkey missed the target share of at least 20% and his first time all year under 19%. Consider this bad week 10 an outlier.
Heading into Week 11, McConkey is in a much better matchup. The Chargers will face a Bengals secondary that allowed three different Ravens pass catchers to earn just 17 fantasy points in Week 10. Lamar Jackson torched the Bengals last week for 290 passing yards and four touchdowns. Cincinnati ranks 27th in coverage this season and the Chargers are in the top three in efficiency over the last month of the season. Expect another strong passing day for Justin Herbert and this offense. That benefits McConkey; he is a start this week.
Pick up and play: Adonai Mitchell
Mitchell had his best game of the season in Week 10, starting in place of an injured Michael Pittman Jr. and Mitchell was able to catch all six of his targets for 71 yards. He generated multiple explosive plays of 10+ yards in this game while leading the Colts in snaps and routes. There is a good chance that Mitchell will start again this week, as Pittman is dealing with a back injury. This injury nearly landed Pittman on IR a few weeks ago and he is reportedly currently struggling to even bend his back.
If Pittman misses Week 11, Mitchell becomes a viable FLEX option again, even with QB Anthony Richardson back under center. Mitchell will face a Jets defense that has struggled since the firing of coach Robert Saleh. New York allowed Kyler Murray to complete 92% of his passes last week. Pick up Mitchell and play if Pittman is out this week.
Must start of the week: Cedric Tillman
Tillman leaves his bye week red hot. He was one of the best wide receivers in football over the last month of the season. In fact, Tillman ranks second in fantasy points per game over the past four weeks, behind only Ja’Marr Chase. During this time, Tillman has averaged 85 yards on 10 targets per game. His schedule for the rest of the season is usually tough, but his Week 11 matchup is not.
Tillman will face the Saints this week. New Orleans no longer has star cornerback Marshon Lattimore on the roster after trading him to the Commanders. In Week 10, the Saints played their first game without Lattimore and allowed 306 passing yards to Kirk Cousins ​​and the Falcons. Both Darnell Mooney and Drake London topped the 90 receiving yards in this game and both were able to produce plenty of yards after the catch against the Saints’ 32nd ranked (by PFF) tackle unit. Make sure Tillman is in your lineup this week; he’s a must-start.
Something to keep an eye on: Broncos Backfield
In Week 10, we saw an interesting development in the Broncos backfield. Rookie Audric Estimé led the Denver RBs with a season-high 45% of snaps. Estimé also handled 14 of 17 RB carries (82%) in this game, by far his best usage of the season. Veteran Javonte Williams saw just one carry and played a season-low 29% of offensive snaps.
This usage made Estimé a priority last week when adding waiver wires. This makes sense, but I’m not ready to confidently say Estimé is a fantasy starter moving forward. The Broncos backfield still uses three different RBs.
Jaleel McLaughlin actually started in Week 10 and played 11% of the snaps. While Estimé saw the bulk of the carries in Week 10, he wasn’t able to do much with them, averaging just 3.7 yards on his 14 touches. To make matters worse, the fifth-round rookie isn’t known for his pass-catching skills. He’ll likely need a touchdown most weeks to be fantasy relevant and that’s a bit challenging in a backfield that uses three RBs and has a mobile QB in Bo Nix.
Stay tuned for the use of this backfield in Week 11 against the Falcons. Estimé isn’t a starter this week, but if his strong role continues, he could become a FLEX option in the future; he has a nice game in Week 12 against the Raiders.
