HomeTop StoriesLatest updates, spaghetti models, possible consequences in Jacksonville

Latest updates, spaghetti models, possible consequences in Jacksonville

Here’s the latest update on Tropical Storm Leslie.

As of the 5 a.m. AST advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the center of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores on the forecast track Sunday or Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 km per hour with higher gusts.

The center of the storm was located 2,000 miles (3,300 kilometers) east of Jacksonville at 5 a.m. AST, according to data from the USA TODAY Network.

According to the latest NHC advisory, Leslie is moving toward the northeast at a speed of 24 miles per hour and a northeast-to-east motion with an increase in forward speed is expected in the coming days.

Cone of uncertainty: See the latest graph from the NHC

Satellite images: See the latest satellite image from NOAA, for a clearer view of the storm’s size

Expected consequences of Tropical Storm Leslie

The advice warns of the following dangers:

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No.

Where is Tropical Storm Leslie?

Here are the latest details on Leslie, according to the NHC’s 5am AST advisory.

  • Location: 2,114 miles east of Jacksonville

  • Maximum sustained wind: 50 km/h

  • Movement: Northeast at 24 mph

Leslie’s estimated minimum central pressure is 1,002 millibars.

Anything larger than 979 MB is an indication that a storm may cause minimal damage. According to the NHC, a storm’s minimum central pressure is not necessarily a hazard, but it can be an indication of whether a storm will intensify in the future. Strengthening usually follows a drop in pressure, and weakening usually follows an increase in pressure.

What does the cone of uncertainty represent?

The cone of uncertainty, posted by the NHC, shows some possible paths from the center of the storm. As you monitor the forecast, keep in mind that Leslie’s impact could be felt well outside the cone – and storm tracks travel outside the cone about a third of the time.

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Watches, warnings

Spaghetti Models: Follow Leslie here

This automatically updated image shows how different spaghetti models track Tropical Storm Leslie:

If the storm tracker does not load, click here.

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Helpful Hurricane Resources and Links

  • Prepare your home: Here’s how to prepare your home for a hurricane, from well in advance to just before a storm arrives

  • Should you prepare for a hurricane? Here’s what you should have in an emergency kit

  • List of hurricane preparedness: If a storm is coming, here’s what to do now

  • Video: Helpful tips for a hurricane survival kit

  • Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones: What is an investment and why do they keep saying tropical cyclones?

  • Officials are encouraging residents to put together a hurricane kit early that will include enough supplies to last at least three days. This way you ensure that there are sufficient stocks available on the store shelves and you prevent crowds (and shortages) that regularly occur when a storm threatens.

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This article originally appeared in Florida Times-Union: Tropical Storm Leslie: Follow the Storm

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