As the dust settles on the 2024 election cycle and the scope of Republican successes comes into view, some observers are drawing a predictable conclusion: If voters supported Republican candidates in such large numbers, it must be because voters agree with the party about the big issues of the day.
For example, Mark Penn, a former adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton, published a flawed election assessment on social media that began: “America is a center-right country at heart. Only 25 percent are liberal and the remaining 75 percent will not be governed by the 25.”
On a superficial level, I can understand how some people come to these kinds of conclusions. If most voters supported Donald Trump and the Republican congressional candidates, the argument goes, then it stands to reason that voters would prefer conservative ideas to progressive ones.
But a closer look at some election results reveals that the ideological lines are not nearly as clear. For example, Trump and his party supported vouchers for private schools. But as The New York Times reported, voters in three states — including two red states where Trump won easily — have rejected voucher schemes.
In Kentucky, nearly two-thirds of voters rejected a proposal to allow state tax dollars to fund private and charter schools. In Nebraska, 57 percent of voters approved a ballot initiative that repealed a small program intended to give low-income families tax dollars to pay tuition at private schools. Votes are still being counted in Colorado. But it seems likely that voters narrowly rejected a broadly worded ballot measure that would have established a “right to school choice,” including private schools and homeschooling.
Note: Nebraska voters supported the Republican ticket by more than 20 points. In Kentucky the margin was more than 30 points. But those same voters nevertheless took a hard look at one of the Republican Party’s top education priorities and said, “No, thanks.”
Plus, it wasn’t just vouchers. Voters in 10 states considered abortion rights initiatives this year, and they passed in seven of them — including in some states Trump carried. (In Florida, a majority of voters supported an abortion rights measure, but the majority was not large enough to pass.)
In ruby-red Missouri, where Republicans like Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley won easily, voters also easily approved measures to raise the minimum wage and require employers to prove paid sick leave. Voters in Alaska, who also broadly supported the Republican ticket, did the same, raising the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour and requiring employers to provide paid sick leave.
A few weeks before Election Day, YouGov conducted an interesting survey in which it asked respondents for their opinions on Trump and Kamala Harris’ policy priorities — except the twist was that participants were not told which policies were associated with which candidates.
The results were striking: Harris’s agenda was far more popular than Trump’s, but many people had no idea that the Democrat’s priorities were, in fact, her priorities.
Requested What they wanted, voters supported Harris’ vision. Requested WHO they wanted, the voters supported the candidate and offered the opposite of her vision.
Certainly, there is room for a broader conversation about why many Americans who support progressive policies also end up supporting candidates who reject those same progressive policies. But on some important fronts, it is nevertheless true that a truly center-right nation, filled with an electorate where conservatism prevailed, would probably not have supported so many progressive ballot measures.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
