Pollsters routinely ask the public for their opinions on things that have happened. The task gets a little trickier when pollsters ask expected opinions about things that do that not yet happened.
And yet there have been many polls in recent months asking Americans an important question: If Donald Trump were convicted of crimes, how would this affect their views on the 2024 presidential race?
There is quite a bit of evidence to take into account, and it has evolved over time.
In NovemberA New York Times/Siena College poll shows him as president Joe Biden Trump trailed in five key battleground states, but those deficits turned into advantages when voters were asked about Trump’s possible criminal conviction.
In DecemberA national YouGov poll showed Biden and Trump tied. However, the same poll showed Biden with a seven-point lead in response to a possible criminal conviction of Trump.
In JanuaryA Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found that more than half of swing-state voters would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime.
In FebruaryAn NBC News poll showed Trump with a five-point lead over Biden, but if Trump were convicted and convicted of a crime, the Democratic incumbent had a two-point lead. Around the same time, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll also showed Biden gaining several points as a result of a Trump conviction.
In AprilA Marquette University Law School poll showed an eight-point swing toward Biden in the event of a Trump conviction. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published around the same time pointed in a very similar direction.
And in Be able toThe latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll shows: “About 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.”
The headline of the NPR report read: “Trump’s verdict would likely result in only a small number of votes, polls show.”
That’s true, but it’s also very relevant. By most measures, the 2024 presidential race is extremely close. Even if we were to assume that the conviction of the presumptive Republican nominee had a small impact, a modest shift could very well make the difference in deciding who wins the election.
In his latest newsletter, The New York Times Nate Cohn noted: “In a close election in a closely divided country, any losses [for Trump] could be crucial.” Watch this space.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
