Before a jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 crimes, there was quite a bit of research into the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election. However, there was an important caveat hanging over our heads.
As we discussed last week, pollsters routinely ask the public for their opinions on things that have happened. The task gets a little trickier when pollsters ask expected opinions about things that do that not yet happened.
Now that the trial is complete and the public knows the former president has been found guilty, the investigation data takes on even greater significance.
This does not mean all of the caveats have disappeared – early data can sometimes be less reliable as the public needs time to process major developments – but those eager to understand what Trump’s guilty verdict means in an electoral context can and should take note of the latest data.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the latest surveys, all released in the past few days.
ABC News/Ipsos poll: In this survey, a 50% majority said the jury made the right decision in Trump’s case; a 51% majority concluded that the former president had deliberately done something illegal in this case; and a 49% majority believe the presumptive Republican nominee should end his candidacy as a result of the guilty verdict.
Found the same data President Joe Biden with a two-point lead over Trump, after determining before the trial that the two major party candidates were tied.
Reuters poll: In this survey, 10% of registered Republican voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump now that he has been found guilty of crimes. Likewise, 25% of registered independent voters said the same thing. The same data also showed Biden ahead by two points.
Morning Consult Survey: In this survey, a 54% majority approved of the ruling in Trump’s case, and 15% of Republican voters said the former president should end his candidacy as a result of his guilty plea. Also notable: About 7 in 10 voters in this poll said Trump’s other pending criminal trials must be resolved before voters can cast ballots in the fall.
CBS News/YouGov poll: In this investigation, the outlet re-contacted the Americans who had been interviewed before the verdict. Although few changed their minds, the results showed that a majority of 54% agreed that Trump’s trial in New York was fair; a majority of 57% agreed with the jury’s verdict; and a 51% majority said Trump is unfit for the presidency.
When House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse a few weeks ago to show his support for his party’s presumptive nominee, the Louisiana Republican made a bold assumption about public attitudes.
The Republican congressional leader began by dismissing the trial as a “sham,” before adding, “I think everyone in the country can see that for what it is.”
That was a dubious claim at the time. It’s even worse now.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
