Over the past half century, first-time presidents running for re-election have almost always botched their first debate. Ronald Reagan looked horrible and sounded horrible against Walter Mondale in 1984; George W. Bush was easily defeated by John Kerry in 2004; and Barack Obama had a very hard time against Mitt Romney in 2012. If Democrats respond to last week’s developments by pointing to this recent history, they have a point.
The difference is that Reagan, Bush and Obama were ahead at the time. When viewers tuned in to the debate and saw them stumble, the incumbents enjoyed a cushion of support that helped prevent panic among their respective parties and supporters.
With the president Joe Bidenit’s a bit more complicated.
Ahead of last week’s debate, the incumbent Democratic candidate was already trailing in most national and swing state polls. Moreover, pre-debate surveys showed that nearly seven in 10 Americans thought Biden was too old to lead effectively.
The cushion that the president’s modern predecessors had didn’t exist before last week’s showdown. In fact, it’s one of the reasons Biden and his team scheduled the debate in the first place: They thought it could push the 2024 race in a new direction.
The Democrat’s performance in Atlanta clearly did not go as planned, and as a result, there is much uncertainty about what the next round of polls would say. Against this backdrop, USA Today reported:
Please note, this national survey was conducted entirely after last week’s Biden-Trump debate.
The poll results aren’t enough to send shockwaves through Democratic politics. If the same data showed the presumptive GOP nominee ahead by double digits, today would be a very different day. But they are enough to keep Biden’s supporters’ fears alive.
That goes for Trump, too. The former president will be happy to see him in power. But if he thought the debate would give him a dominant position, the poll suggests that hasn’t happened, at least not yet.
While the next big round of data isn’t in yet, the USA Today/Suffolk poll wasn’t the only survey of note. In New Hampshire, for example, a St. Anselm College poll conducted after the debate found Trump leading Biden by a few points in the Granite State — which wouldn’t be so bad for Democrats if Biden hadn’t won New Hampshire by seven points in the last election, and a St. Anselm College poll late last year found Biden leading the state by 10 points.
I continue to believe that the polls will have a positive impact. enormous impact on whether Democratic officials try to shake up their 2024 ticket. For now, the fact that the data doesn’t show an epic collapse for the incumbent president should probably be seen as a good sign at Biden HQ, though the longer the polls show him trailing his felonious rival, the longer the talk of the president passing the torch will persist.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
