As 2024 got underway, Democratic officials felt even more anxious than usual about the presidential race, as polls showed President Joe Biden in a relatively weak position compared to Donald TrumpWhen Ezra Klein of The New York Times argued in February that it was time for the incumbent to give up his re-election plans, his case went viral in the party.
Biden and his team saw his State of the Union address as an opportunity to answer doubts — and the president seized the opportunity. In impressive fashion, the Democrat presented a compelling vision in a powerful and compelling way. Over the course of a single evening on Capitol Hill, Biden silenced critics and reminded voters why they elected him in the first place.
Ezra Klein returned to the topic a month after his provocative argument generated so much conversation, writing in a not-so-subtle dig at himself: “If the Joe Biden who showed up to give the State of the Union address last week is the Joe Biden who shows up for the rest of the campaign, you won’t have any more wimpy pundits saying he’s incapable of running for re-election.”
Three months later, the circumstances were similar. With national and state polls showing Biden trailing his criminal rival, it was time once again for the president to step up, deliver a strong, compelling performance on a national stage, and dispel questions about his readiness, just as he did in early March.
In the first presidential debate of the cycle, that did not happen. As an NBC News report summarized:
But as important as this was, and as Democrats begin to google whether it is even possible to replace a nominee, Trump’s weaknesses have also been exposed.
Before the debate, the presumptive Republican nominee was widely seen as a scandal-ridden liar living in his own reality, lacking a vision for the future, and unable to defend against the many catastrophes of his failed first term. After the debate, the former president left little doubt that he is still a liar who is plagued by scandals and lives in his own reality, who has no vision for the future and who has no defense against the many catastrophes that his failed first term brought with him.
A New York Times report last night noted: “Mr. Trump was confident and forceful even as he unleashed a stream of misleading attacks and lies.”
Well, I suppose so — although it’s usually easy for a candidate to be “confident and powerful” when they abandon the pretense of honesty and lie uncontrollably. Indeed, winning debates is surprisingly easy when candidates decide they can say anything and expect to get away with it.
I have no doubt that the political world will focus on Biden’s hesitant actions, but Trump’s blatantly dishonest demagoguery was just as important.
A handful of other takeaways from my notes:
* These circumstances certainly seem familiar to me. For various reasons, sitting presidents consistently lose the first debate of their re-election campaigns. Team Biden hoped to break the “curse.” It didn’t happen.
* Biden is a better president than candidate. Some people excel at job interviews but struggle to actually do the job. For the Democratic president it is exactly the other way around.
* The democratic panic threatens to get much worse. If you think Democrats’ fear was overwhelming overnight, it’s now reaching a whole new level. I’m thinking of a clever piece Dave Weigel wrote for Slate 12 years ago, after the first Obama/Romney debate.
“[T]The first presidential debate reminds me of the first presidential debate Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace”, Weigel wrote in 2012. “Democrats walked out of the movie theater/turned off the TV and said, ‘Huh, well, I wish it was better.’ After a few days of talking to friends, it goes from being a disappointment to the worst piece of bullshit in human history.
As talk of last night’s debate spreads, and voters who didn’t tune in hear the audio, the feeding frenzy will increase.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
