Those who wonder who Donald Trump will choose as running mate, don’t have to wait much longer. To the extent that the former president’s promises reflect reality, the Republican has said he plans to time his announcement to coincide with his nominating convention — which begins in three weeks today — and he has apparently made up his mind.
In fact, the presumptive Republican Party nominee was asked this weekend whether he has settled on a vice presidential pick. “In my mind, yes,” he responded, though he quickly added that the person had not been notified.
Around this time eight years ago, with two weeks to go before Trump’s first nominating convention, an incredible number of prominent Republican senators and governors, including Florida Senator Marco Rubio, publicly withdrew from consideration, making it explicitly clear that they didn’t want that. join Trump’s ticket.
At the time, the future president’s stranglehold on Republican politics was tenuous — many party power brokers saw him as a likely loser — and ambitious Republicans saw value in keeping Trump at bay. Circumstances have clearly changed significantly, and potential vice presidents are tripping over each other hoping to score points with a man who could very well return to the White House in six months.
I won’t pretend to have any special insights into who gets the credit, but NBC News reported late last week that the list appears to have gotten smaller.
The report added that Rubio, who participated in an awkward audition, “remains in contention,” though his chances have apparently been jeopardized by “doubts about his enthusiasm for the job and concerns about navigating a constitutional issue that Trump or Rubio would be needed. to establish residency in another state.”
Each member of this trio, by the way, was a former Trump critic turned Trump sycophant.
Let’s take a step back: Part of what makes the so-called “veepstakes” process so interesting is the rarity of the broader circumstances: In American politics, it is extremely unusual for someone to be elevated to national prominence based on the decision of one individual, but that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
The 2024 process is also of particular importance because former Vice President Mike Pence is replaced. (If I were looking for a job and I heard that my future employer was endangering my predecessor’s life, I would be inclined to withdraw my application.)
But this also seems like a good time to revisit the three-category framework I write about every four years. The way I see it, running mates almost always fall into one of three categories:
A “summer“running mate is announced around the time of the candidate’s major party convention, and the choice is made to unify a divided party.
A “fallThe running mate is made around the same time, but the motivation behind the choice is the general election: candidates choose a “trap” to help them win the presidency.
A “winterRunning mate is a situation in which the presidential candidate expects his or her vice president to help govern after Inauguration Day.
I’ve always viewed the categories themselves as value-neutral, and there have been good and bad running mates in each group. Moreover, every now and then we see a running mate who falls into more than one category.
But the framework often helps to clarify matters. For example, Lyndon Johnson in 1960 and George HW Bush in 1980 were classic “summer picks,” designed to bring together competing party constituencies. I’d say Pence probably belonged in this category as well.
Some recent fall picks are likely John Edwards in 2004, Jack Kemp in 1996, and Sarah Palin in 2008. (Ironically, all of these tickets have been lost.)
As far as “winter” running mates go, Dick Cheney in 2000 is a classic example, and I would argue that Joe Biden in 2008 probably falls into the same category.
So what can we expect from Trump? The answer isn’t entirely obvious: The presumptive Republican nominee isn’t overly concerned about party unity, despite Nikki Haley’s recent vote totals, and he doesn’t care enough about governing to prioritize post-election policymaking . That suggests he will make a choice with Election Day considerations in mind, although even at this point Trump appears to be operating under the assumption that his success is a given.
We’ll get an answer soon enough, but while we wait, Vice President Kamala Harris recently shared an assessment with Politico: “What we know is that Donald Trump wants an enabler. He doesn’t want a government partner. He doesn’t want another Mike Pence, and I think that’s clear,” the California Democrat said. “The litmus test is: Will they be absolutely loyal to Trump over their country or their oath of office, or, frankly, the American people?”
Watch this space.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
