There has been quite a bit of news lately about the crime rates in the United States, and fortunately, almost all of it is encouraging. For example, NBC News recently reported “that crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend and contradicting the widespread perception that crime is increasing.”
Last week, the Department of Justice released some preliminary data on this year’s figures, which also showed significant improvements in violent and property crime in every region of the country. The Washington Post’s Catherine Rampell noted soon after that homicide rates in 2024 are “on track to be at or below the levels they have been every year during Donald Trump’s presidency.”
However, prominent Republicans are not only reluctant to celebrate the good news, they also act as if it doesn’t exist.
For example, on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” Rep. Byron Donalds told viewers, “I think it’s important for people to understand that even though homicide rates are down, that doesn’t mean violent crime and so on is down.”
But violent crime and so on, be real lower. It was a detail that the Florida Republican, who was reportedly vying for his party’s vice presidential nomination, simply ignored.
Around the same time, Senator Tim Scott, another leading candidate for the GOP ticket, appeared on ABC News’ “This Week” and told guest host Jonathan Karel:
As the South Carolina Republican should really know, there has been no effort to defund law enforcement — except among Scott’s GOP colleagues in Congress — and the idea that violent crime rates have reached a five-decade high is the opposite of reality. .
When Karl noted that the crimes have “actually decreased,” Scott basically said he didn’t care about the evidence. “We have seen a spike in violent crime,” the senator added, pointing to a development that has not occurred.
Of course, the problem isn’t just that Republicans are lying. The broader significance of this is that many Americans do not know they are lying, and the public has embraced claims that have no basis in reality.
I’m reminded again of a line in a recent Axios report that struck me: “Polling shows that crime is one of the top concerns ahead of the 2024 election – and it’s an issue where Republicans regularly trail Democrats let themselves be. But falling murder rates could take away the Republican Party’s crucial advantage.”
That’s true; It could be. That said, it’s hard to be confident about that shall.
Prominent Republican voices, including those seeking national office, likely know that crime rates are falling. That doesn’t seem to stop them from telling the public the opposite of the truth, operating on the assumption that many voters will simply believe the untruths and never hear about actual crime data.
In fact, a recent Gallup poll found that most Americans have already embraced the untruths, evidence be damned.
In the abstract, political campaigns have long followed a set of intuitive rules. Those who want to win tend to identify their rivals’ weaknesses and focus on them. Likewise, the candidates have also taken care to learn the strengths of their enemies and steer their races away from these issues.
But the crime rates provide a good example of how contemporary Republican politics rejects the intuitive rules for a different model. To the extent that reality still makes sense, Biden has a compelling story to tell: Crime rates, especially homicide rates, spiked toward the end of his Republican predecessor’s term. Under the leadership of the incumbent Democratic president, Americans are now safer.
Common sense might suggest that Republican officials would see the news and try to steer the public conversation away from this strong point for Biden. But it turns out they find it much easier to effectively say, “Why don’t we just make stuff up and wait for the public to buy it?”
Yes, the evidence could pose a problem for Republicans as the election season progresses, but given the party’s brazenness, cynicism, and complete indifference to the data, it seems likely that too many Republican voices will simply ignore the evidence and will continue to lie.
This message updates our related previous reporting.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
