As most honest observers would probably agree, the race for the White House remains a mystery. But whoever wins the presidential election, he or she will look to the U.S. Senate to help govern, and it turns out figuring out which party will have the majority of the chamber next year won’t be easy either.
As regular readers know, the Democratic Senate Conference currently has a one-seat majority, but with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement, Republicans have already flipped one seat for all intents and purposes.
With this in mind, Republicans will need a net gain of just one additional seat to secure a majority, which is hardly unrealistic given the number of close races in states where there is currently a Democratic incumbent – including races in states where Donald Trump is anything but certain to win easily.
So where do things stand with 32 days to go? Let’s take stock.
There are, by most measures, eleven Senate races that could credibly be described as “competitive.” I’ll take them one by one, in alphabetical order:
Arizona: Incumbent independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema is retiring
Why Democrats feel good about the raceThe Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has led failed Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in almost every poll for months, and with a vote on abortion rights likely to boost turnout, Gallego is the clear favorite.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite Lake’s baggage from her 2022 race, the election denier isn’t being blown out, and the fact that the race is competitive keeps Democratic money flowing to the state, rather than other contests.
Florida: Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott is seeking a second term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: The far-right incumbent party is not very popular; he has no achievements or record of success; an abortion rights ballot measure that will likely increase turnout; and polls suggest that former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell keeps this match much more competitive than most thought possible.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Ultimately, Florida is a red state, filled with voters who probably don’t care about the senator’s terrible record; Scott is able to invest heavily thanks to his significant personal fortune; and Mucarsel-Powell is struggling to keep up financially in a huge state with several expensive media markets.
Maryland: Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin retires
Why Democrats feel good about the race: In one of the country’s reliably blue states, Angela Alsobrooks’ lead in the polls appears to be growing, and it doesn’t hurt that there’s an abortion rights ballot measure on the statewide ballot.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Larry Hogan remains popular in the state, and the former governor is benefiting from massive investments from Republican megadonors.
Michigan: Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow retires
Why Democrats feel good about the race: The latest polls show Elissa Slotkin well positioned to prevail in a state that has elected a Republican senator only once in the past fifty years.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite former Rep. Mike Rogers’ baggage — he moved to Florida after retiring from Congress — he’s keeping the race close.
Montana: Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Tester is a respected and experienced incumbent, with a track record, and it doesn’t hurt that there is an abortion rights ballot measure on the statewide ballot.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Polls show Tester nevertheless losing to a struggling Republican businessman who faces controversy surrounding his racist rhetoric, his reputation for dishonesty over a gunshot wound and alleged plagiarism in his book.
Nebraska: Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer is seeking a third term
Why Democrats feel good about the raceIndependent Dan Osborn has stunned much of the political world by running a strong race — Republicans have struggled in recent weeks to air ads in a state they expected to ignore — and polls suggest he is within striking distance of an upset victory. The fact that the vote will also include abortion policy measures could tip the balance.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Ultimately, Nebraska is a reliably ruby red state.
Nevada: Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Nevada is one of the most divisive battleground states in the country, but polls suggest Rosen is well positioned to prevail. Nevada is also among the states with a statewide measure to promote abortion rights.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Republican Sam Brown is not far behind the incumbent president, and there is still plenty of Republican Party money supporting his candidacy.
Ohio: Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Like Tester in Montana, Brown is a respected and experienced incumbent, with a record of success. Unlike Tester, recent polls show Brown clinging to a narrow lead.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Bernie Moreno isn’t exactly an impressive candidate, and he’s not exactly running a good campaign, but he’s still within three points of being a popular senator, thanks in large part to the fact that Ohio is becoming a reliably red state.
Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey is seeking a fourth term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Like Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio, Casey is a respected and experienced incumbent with a record of success. The latest polls also show that the senator has a modest but stable lead.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite his carpetbagger problem, Dave McCormick is still within striking distance of beating an incumbent.
Texas: Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is exactly the kind of candidate who could appeal to a broad audience in Texas — “Republicans for Allred” has a number of established and well-known figures on board — and many GOP insiders in response have begun to express real concern about polls surprisingly close.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite all of Cruz’s many problems, he still has an “R” after his name in Texas. With Trump expected to win the state relatively easily, are there really a significant number of voters who will vote for Trump and Allred on the same ballot? GOP insiders believe the answer is no.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is seeking a third term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Like Tester in Montana, Brown in Ohio and Casey in Pennsylvania, Baldwin is a respected and experienced incumbent, with a record of success. The latest polls also show that the senator has a modest but stable lead.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: In a dynamic similar to Ohio, Eric Hovde isn’t exactly an impressive candidate, and he’s not exactly running a good campaign, but he’s still within five points of being a popular senator.
The stakes are high. Watch this space.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
