Southern Oregon has long been Republican, but changes are happening. (Getty Images)
Conservative southern Oregon, often considered an afterthought by many other Oregonians, is perhaps the most politically dynamic area in Oregon.
Few other areas show as much potential for political change.
Consider a few major events in the Medford area, just a few miles apart and on the same day, June 22.
The Jackson County Fairgrounds was dominated by the Republican political gathering called MOGA Competition 2024, the acronym that stands for “Make Oregon Great Again.” Headliners included national figures Mike Lindellthe founder of MyPillow and advocate for Donald TrumpThis may be the only truly large-scale event in Oregon. this year’s Republican calendar, presented as “Come Help Us Reclaim Southern Oregon.” It was heavily promoted by the local Republican organization, by other groups in the region and through local radio stations.
From a pro-Trump perspective, you might wonder if there’s much to take back in the southern Oregon area. Most of this large sector of the state already votes Republican.
But it may not be as closed as some might think. Jackson-Josephine counties appear to be on the cusp of something subtle that events like MOGA could have a crucial impact on: deciding whether the area becomes sufficiently MAGA-dominated that other viewpoints are swamped, which hasn’t happened yet.
One piece of evidence for that argument is the second event held just a few miles from the MOGA event, at Pear Blossom Park in Medford, where organizers hosted the well-attended 3rd Annual Medford Pride event. One attendee said, “It gives young people the space to be free to express themselves however they want. And an opportunity in an area that is not always the most accepting to really give our community a chance to be queer.
These two events may fit into the bigger picture of conservative southern Oregon like pieces of a puzzle shifting and developing.
The two major counties in the area are Jackson (where Medford is the capital) and Josephine (Grants Pass).
Jackson leans Republican, but not by much. In the past two decades, it has voted Democratic for president only once, in 2008, but no one has won their presidential vote since 2004, with a whopping 51 percent. Its legislative delegation is overwhelmingly Republican, and Republicans control the county government, but Democrats, including Sen. Jeff Golden and Rep. Pam Marsh, also represent a large portion of the county’s voters. There are some signs that it is slowly turning away from its hard-right stance. It is one of 11 counties in Oregon that have legalized therapeutic psilocybin. Hard-line positions on property taxes appear to have softened somewhat in recent years. Jackson shows no signs of becoming a blue county, but it does appear to be slowly turning purple.
Josephine County is more solidly Republican. No Democrat has won the presidential vote since 1936, the longest run of any Oregon county, and Trump has won 60% in both runs. State and local officials are Republican, and there is no indication that will change in the near future.
Still, there are signs of attitudes shifting. Josephine is one of the most staunchly anti-tax districts in Oregon, along with neighbors like Curry and Douglas. But after a series of deep cuts to local services, voters appear to have turned their attention to the issue again.
Libraries are a good example. All libraries in the province were closed in May 2007 due to lack of provincial funding, but the libraries have since reopened and a library funding measure passed in 2017 with 53% of the vote. Law enforcement is another useful case study. Severely inadequate funding for the sheriff’s office for several years was addressed this decade with the creation of a law enforcement taxing district, which voters also approved.
Both counties appear to have developed stronger tourism, recreation, and wine industries, which tends to moderate political sentiment over time, and some of that seems to be playing out. This is especially true in the well-known cultural and tourist centers of Ashland and Jacksonville, which are both growing and thriving, but also to some extent in Medford and Grants Pass, and in several smaller communities.
Most of the more rural areas remain far-right conservative, and the traditional ‘Do Not Tread on Me’ and other similar signs are not difficult to find outside the cities. These areas are a MAGA redoubt and few people outside their tribe make themselves visible. That absence of an opposing culture allows for broader adoption of the MAGA message.
But in some cities, alternative messages are increasingly visible. They’re not close to changing the partisan tilt of the area. But they could be enough to slow an overwhelming adoption of support in the region for Trump and his allies. Much depends on whether people are more exposed to one message or the other.
The margins are small. That’s why events like the MOGA event and the Medford Pride activity can, in their own ways, have real ripple effects.
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