Mailbag: Does the UFC even care if Conor McGregor fights again?

What are the chances we see at least one major upset at UFC 310 on Saturday? Is the UFC the only company that still wants to be in the Conor McGregor business? And when does carefully charting a course through your MMA career turn into blatantly evasive fights?

That and more in this week’s mailbag. To ask a question yourself, go to @benfowlkesmma or @benfowlkes.bsky.social.

Ian Machado Garry has surprised me so many times so far that I can’t sit here and say he doesn’t have a chance. I’m also not going to tell you that I think he has a great chance.

That’s not a knock on Garry. It’s just that… Shavkat Rakhmonov? That boy good. Really good. He’s so good that we haven’t seen him in anything resembling a competitive fight yet. Not only has he never lost and never been on the scorecards, I don’t think you can say there has ever been a single straight minute of action during his time in the UFC where he wasn’t clearly winning.

Garry’s success in the UFC to date has been based on controlling the distance and pace of his fights. He’s secretly good at dictating where and how and when the fight takes place. Unfortunately for him, I think this will be very difficult against Rakhmonov. The nice thing about being a 4-to-1 favorite, as Rakhmonov is now, is that it’s usually for a reason.

Everything I know about the way the UFC operates tells me it would absolutely welcome him if he still wants to fight. The only times we’ve seen the UFC cut ties with fighters on ethical grounds have been in cases where those fighters weren’t popular or profitable. If a man brings in enough money, the UFC, like virtually every other fight promoter in history, will turn a blind eye to virtually any abhorrent personal behavior.

That said, isn’t it weird that no one at the UFC has said anything about this yet? Absolutely? In the days since he was found liable for sexual assault, Conor McGregor has been dumped by: a video game, the drinks brand he founded and sold and a wax museum. In fact, everyone who made money from the McGregor brand is now running away from it. Except the UFC.

I’m assuming that at some point during this week’s pre-fight media obligations, UFC CEO Dana White will be asked about McGregor, and I suspect he’ll try to remain as non-committal as possible. Expect a lot of “we’ll see what happens” answers, with a side of “he has some stuff to do so we’re not thinking about it right now.”

As for McGregor himself, I bet he still wants to fight in 2025. On social media, he appears completely unrepentant and appears to have learned nothing from this experience. He might be more motivated to fight now, as MMA is the only space where he might still be welcome. The wax museum doesn’t want him, but unfortunately the UFC probably still does.

First of all, I like that you added “no drug testing” just to really capture the spirit of PRIDE.

Secondly, my first reaction was to go for Jon Jones. Just think of the creative attacks he came up with under a more liberal set of rules. But I think one thing we often forget about the PRIDE rules is that they didn’t allow elbows to the head. Football kicks? Certainly. Jump into the air and stomp on the skull of a downed opponent like you’re trying to crush an empty beer can? Absolute. Even the professional wrestling stacker was completely fine. But there is no elbow bump.

Those elbows are a big part of Jones’ game. Is he the same man without them? Don’t know. But basically anything Francis Ngannou does would still be allowed. And if he could get some friendly stand-ups from those PRIDE references, who always knew how to help a favorite fighter when needed, then I think his chances are even better.

There’s really only one: Jon Jones versus Tom Aspinall. It is the fight to make in 2025. The heavyweight division needs it. Jones and Aspinall need it, for their own different reasons. And the UFC would make a lot of money from it, even if it might cost a bit more upfront than what’s currently in the contracts.

That fight is a chance to make up for what went wrong when the UFC failed to make Jones vs. Ngannou to book. It would be an unforgivable sin to let it slip through our collective fingers now.

A pattern that often repeats itself in this sport is that fighters have one perspective on what the path to the title should look like as they move up the rankings, but a completely different perspective once they become champions.

You see it again and again. The contenders all believe that the champion should fight at least three or four times a year and compete against everyone. But once a man actually becomes champion, he suddenly has a lot of opinions about which contenders should fight each other to determine who gets to try (and fail) for his title.

Merab Dvalishvili is no different. And hey, one way to stay in the conversation between title fights is to voice opinions on who needs to do what to be worthy of a date with you. At least he’s funny and creative about it.

Here I must paraphrase my great friend William Faulkner: it is not so much what a person does, but the way the majority of people look at him while he is doing it.

In other words, once enough people get it into their heads that you’re avoiding certain fights, even the defensibly intelligent and measured approach starts to quack like a duck. Warriors must be selfish. They have to take care of themselves from one fight to the next because the promoter, the fans and the media won’t do that for them.

That said, a good rule of thumb is: once you know you can’t go anywhere or do anything without someone asking when are you going to fight a certain specific opponent? Then it’s time. Fight that guy or get out of the way.

I think the UFC is splitting its product between two or more different broadcast platforms. Pay-per-views will be one place, while UFC Fight Night’s weekly content will go elsewhere. I think we’ll see more things like the Contender Series, where the UFC opts for cheap content creation that also locks young fighters into long-term deals.

In short, the parent company will continue to find more and more ways to wring every last cent out of the company, but without necessarily improving the end product for fans. PFL is gaining zero ground. The only thing remotely competing with the UFC for the combat sports dollar are other combat sports, like various forms of boxing and pro wrestling and whatever cursed spawn follows in the aftermath of slap fights. (Personally? I really hope this is the thing where you hit each other with tortillas.)

As for Dana White, if he’s still above ground, he’s still in charge. That part is probably true forever.