MINNEAPOLIS – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released new data Friday showing the historic likelihood of snowfall on Christmas this year.
An interactive map on NOAA’s website shows that places in northern Minnesota such as Leech Lake, Grand Rapids and Cloquet have a better than 90% chance of seeing at least an inch of snow by Christmas. But places even as far south as Winnebago, Owatonna and the Twin Cities have more than a 70% chance of snow on Christmas.
Other areas that could be affected by Christmas snow include Alaska, Maine, New York state, Idaho and parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
A decrease in snow
This is an interesting development considering that there has been a general warming trend across the state since 1969.
WCCO meteorologist Mike Augustyniak also points out that there has been a very slight – probably not meaningful – downward trend in Christmas morning snow depth in the Twin Cities and Duluth over the same period.
Augustyniak also says it’s hard to really pinpoint a trend for Christmas Day snowfall because there aren’t many sample points.
Specific to Minnesota, areas like Duluth and the Twin Cities have seen everything from no snowfall at Christmas to five feet of snow in the past five years alone.
What does this mean?
According to Climate Central, winter is the fastest warming season in the US. Warmer winter air can hold more moisture, and whether or not that moisture is expelled as rain or snow depends on local temperatures.
Fewer days without freezing temperatures increase the chance that moisture will fall as rain, not snow.
However, in places like Minnesota, snow and other winter activities play a major role in the state’s economy.
In an article written by two economic analysts from the University of Minnesota, the tourism industry brings billions of dollars to Minnesota every year – in fact, $22.8 billion.
One of the analysts, Brigid Tuck, writes, “Overall, overnight visitors to a Minnesota community spend $140 to $150 each day of their stay. That money flows through the community in many ways. This year, some of that money that starts with activities like snowmobiling, skiing and ice fishing won’t be there.”
