Donald Trump’s campaign event Sunday at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania highlighted his battle with Kamala Harris to court a coveted group of working-class voters who have the potential to determine the outcome of the presidential election in a critical swing state.
To win them over, the former president is trying to turn the election into a referendum on the Biden-Harris administration’s record, while the vice president hopes to make it a choice between two opposing agendas. Harris is pushing for an expansion of the child tax credit, a subsidy for new homebuyers, a higher minimum wage and guaranteed paid leave, while the former president calls for expanding his tax cuts and cutting regulations to lower energy bills.
Data shows that lower-wage workers – such as those who work in fast-food restaurants – are less likely to vote. In fact, it’s a nearly linear relationship: The less money you make, the less likely you are to show up at the polls, according to Tufts University. Both candidates are trying to sway and sway those voters in the final weeks before the election, and the image of Trump serving fries to supporters at a McDonald’s drive-thru was an attempt by the wealthy real estate mogul to reach voters who do. want. make or break his ambitions to return to the White House.
According to McDonald’s, about 1 in 8 Americans has worked in the fast food chain at some point.
With the economy and cost of living consistently at the top of the list, especially for persuadable voters, the economic agendas of the two wage-earner candidates could determine how these crucial voters in battleground states cast their ballots.
Lower-paid workers would benefit more from Harris’s plans than from Trump’s, according to an analysis of the two candidates’ policies by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
“If you look at direct policy, there’s no question that Harris is a little bit more focused on lower-income workers,” said Kent Smetters, a business professor who worked on the analysis.
The lowest-earning 20% of households could receive an average of $2,300 in various federal stimulus checks under Harris’ plan, compared to about $350 under Trump’s plan, Smetters said. The incentives under Harris include an increase in the child tax credit, health care subsidies and help for first-time homebuyers.
But some of those gains from lower-wage workers under Harris would be offset by slightly slower wage growth due to a higher corporate tax rate that Harris is also proposing, compared to Trump, Smetters said. Factoring in that slower wage growth, lower-wage workers would see a benefit of about $1,750 more per year under Harris than under Trump, he said.
Trump has proposed vaguer ways he would improve the overall economy, such as regulatory cuts and lower business taxes that he said would boost business investment. However, it is unclear how these would translate into a benefit for lower-wage workers.
Trump has also proposed steep tariffs on imports, which he says would encourage companies to move factories to the US, although economists say this could push up prices and trigger a new wave of inflation. Trump has also said he would deport millions of immigrants, something that could increase demand for workers, and therefore wages, but also lead to labor shortages that would drive up prices.
The Wharton School’s analysis did not take into account the effect of either candidate’s proposals on exempting tips from federal taxes, because implementing such a plan would require numerous additional rules to prevent a major loss of tax revenue, Smetters said.
The clash comes in the midst of a national realignment. White voters without a college degree — who also tend to have lower incomes — are leaning toward Republicans because of cultural differences, but Harris is using economic appeals to limit her margins of defeat in rural areas. Trump is also trying to steal some working-class black and Latino voters, a mainstay of the Democratic coalition, in a strategy that, if successful, could determine the outcome of battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
A mid-October poll by The Associated Press measured which of the two candidates voters trust on a variety of economic issues. Harris won by 10 points on “taxes on the middle class,” by 2 points on “jobs and unemployment,” and by 5 points on “the cost of housing.” Voters trusted Trump by 2 points for handling “the cost of groceries and gas” and by 5 points on tariffs.
Both candidates have some ambiguities in their agenda. Harris’ campaign declined to say where it plans to set the federal minimum wage, which currently stands at $7.25 an hour. Her campaign also has not said how many weeks of paid leave should be guaranteed, or how the costs of paying those workers during that time should be covered.
Meanwhile, Trump dodged several questions during the drive-thru about whether he supports an increase in the minimum wage. The president also has not said whether he supports guaranteeing paid leave.
Lower-wage workers have seen some of the largest wage increases across the economy over the past four years, but also continue to face some of the biggest financial challenges when it comes to meeting the rising costs of housing, food and utilities.
Frontline workers at fast-food restaurants are earning an average of $16.26 an hour — an all-time high — and an 8% wage increase, adjusted for inflation, since President Joe Biden took office, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Under Trump, the hourly wages of these employees increased by 10.7%, after adjustment for inflation.
The difference shows the extent to which inflation during Biden and Harris’ terms, while now slowing back toward its long-term average, has impacted wage earners. Since February 2021, the consumer price index has increased by 19.4%. During the Trump administration, it rose by only 7.6%.
Overall, lower-wage workers across the economy have seen some of the largest wage increases since the pandemic began. Adjusted for inflation, wages for lower-income workers have risen nearly 17% since 2019, according to data from the Economic Policy Institute. That compares to an increase of just 7% for average-wage workers when inflation is taken into account.
The Harris campaign also emphasized its pro-union positions and took issue with Trump’s proposal for aggressive tariffs, saying taxes on imported goods will be passed on to the middle class in the form of higher prices.
“Donald Trump is seeking a tax increase for the middle class, Kamala Harris is seeking a tax cut for the middle class,” Harris campaign spokesman James Singer said. “Donald Trump wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Kamala Harris will strengthen and expand the Affordable Care Act. And most importantly, Kamala Harris has an agenda to help them and their families achieve the American dream, as Donald Trump uses workers as props while he screws and sells them out.”
Trump’s team defended the tariffs as an attempt to attack China.
“President Trump will not only restore the booming economic environment of his first term, but he will also eliminate tip and overtime taxes and oppose Communist China’s efforts to harm American workers,” said spokesperson Anna Kelly. from the Republican National Committee, in an email. “Working families like everyday Teamsters overwhelmingly support President Trump because only he can make America rich, strong and great again.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
