Neither Joseph Mitchum nor Laura Brooks participated in the last presidential election four years ago.
But they and voters like them could very well decide the outcome of the race for the White House in November.
Mitchum, a native of battleground Georgia, and Brooks, who lives in Michigan, both participated in NBC News polls this year and told pollsters they would support the former president Donald Trump above chairman Joe Biden — reflecting a broad trend in public polls showing Trump with a significant advantage among those who did not vote in 2020.
Findings from NBC News’s last three national polls — all taken before last week’s debate — show Trump leaning a whopping 25 points among voters who didn’t participate in both 2020 and 2022, compared to voters who voted in the last two national elections.
If those voters show up this time, it could make the difference between victory and loss for Trump. And both Mitchum and Brooks emphasize the big question of whether these non-2020 voters will actually show up in November.
Mitchum, 24, said he will definitely vote in 2024 — after not being registered to vote in 2020. “Yes, I will vote,” he told NBC News in a follow-up interview.
“I really don’t like what’s happening to our border,” he added, explaining why he supports Trump. “Another reason is because I’m partisan on my gun rights.”
But Brooks, 25, said in her follow-up interview that she probably won’t vote in November, even though she said she would back Trump in a poll. (Like Mitchum, Brooks was not registered to vote in 2020.)
“Biden, he seems a little senile right now,” she told NBC News. “And with Trump, there’s all this legal red tape surrounding him.”
“I’ve never seen a pony show like this,” Brooks added.
Biden’s frequent voters versus Trump’s infrequent voters
In the 2020 presidential election, a record 159 million Americans turned out to vote. Yet tens of millions of eligible voters like Mitchum and Brooks did not participate, representing a significant portion of the potential electorate that could influence the 2024 outcome.
NBC News’ November 2023, January 2024, and April 2024 polls interviewed a total of 3,000 registered voters, most of whom were linked to historical voter files in the United States.
Among those who participated in both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterm elections — representing 56% of all voters interviewed — Biden led Trump by 5 percentage points, 49% to 44%, according to the combined polls.
But among those who voted in 2020 alone — representing 17% of interviews — Trump led by 12 points, 50% to 38%.
And Trump’s lead over Biden was even wider among those who didn’t vote in 2020 (by 16 points) and those who didn’t vote in both 2020 and 2022 (by 20 points).
If you look at it this way, this election could come down to Biden’s frequent voters versus Trump’s infrequent voters.
“Trump’s positive margins over Biden come from less frequent voters — people who voted in 2020 and skipped the 2022 midterm elections, or who didn’t vote in either election,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who co-leads the NBC News poll. .
It’s not just the NBC News national poll that shows Trump overperforming with few voters; Surveys by The New York Times and the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter also show this.
Will the rare voters show up in November?
The challenge for Trump, however, is that these 2020 non-voters are much less interested in the upcoming presidential election, and thus may be less likely to actually vote in November.
The same consolidated NBC News poll found that 73% of voters who participated in the 2020 and 2022 elections rated themselves as having a high level of interest in the upcoming presidential election, giving themselves a “9” or “10” when asked to rate their interest on a 10-point scale. Only 44% of those who did not vote in 2020, and 37% who voted in neither 2020 nor 2022, rated their interest in 2024 as that high.
These findings show a huge shift in American politics, as Republicans used to produce the most reliable voters, while Democrats were less reliable.
“Forty years ago, the joke in a special election was ‘pray for rain,’ because the most reliable voters were college-educated, affluent Republicans who always voted,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster.
But today, he added, “the data is clear that the consistent voter is leaning toward Biden.”
Who are the voters who did not participate in 2020?
According to the NBC News poll, non-2020 voters disproportionately describe themselves as politically moderate. They often don’t have college degrees. And they’re more likely to be younger voters.
But some of them are older, like Maria Calderon, 52, of Houston. She explained why she didn’t run in the 2020 election: “I had a lot going on in my life at that time.”
Still, she told NBC News that she will vote in November. “I will vote this year,” she said. “It would be for Donald Trump, 100 percent.”
People who rarely vote also have much more negative opinions about Biden than about Trump.
According to combined NBC News polls, Biden’s net favorability rating drops from minus 9 among 2020 and 2022 voters to minus 31 among those who didn’t vote in either of the last two national elections. Trump’s trend is the opposite: from minus 6 among those who didn’t vote in 2020 and 2022 to minus 21 among those who voted in both.
“I’m not going to vote,” said Vivian Lambert of Augusta, Georgia, who did not run in 2020. “But it would be Trump.”
“I just hear so many bad things about Biden,” Lambert continued.
Yet not all of these irregular voters are Trump supporters. Kelly Torz of Michigan, 25, says she did not vote in 2020 but will vote for Biden in November because of her support for abortion rights, the environment and LGBTQ issues.
“I care deeply about the environment, and Biden is hopefully going to help keep the ecosystem in better shape than I think Trump would,” Torz said.
And again, it is not certain that all of these voters who did not participate last time will participate in 2024.
“Most likely,” said Noah Fimon, 19, of Louisiana, who supports Trump.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
