We made it to the final four of baseball. Through two rounds of this postseason, the Dodgers and Mets have come out of the National League to battle it out with a spot in the World Series on the line.
This National League Championship Series promises plenty of fireworks, with an array of stars led by Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts and Pete Alonso ready to put on a show starting in Game 1 on Sunday in Los Angeles.
Let’s break it down.
NO. 6 NEW YORK METS vs. #1 LOS ANGELES DODGERS
How they got here
Of: No one in baseball has won more games since June 1. All the fun stuff—Pete Alonso’s pumpkin, Jose Iglesias’ music career, Grimace—somewhat overshadows the fact that this has been a phenomenal team for 15 weeks.
So far in October, New York’s starting pitching has been the deciding factor. A Mets starter has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. As a unit, they have allowed 10 runs in 37 innings, good for a 2.43 ERA. In Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS against the Phillies, Sean Manaea and José Quintana combined for just one earned run in 12 innings. This group has stepped up tremendously, which is a good thing considering how relatively taxed the bullpen seems to be right now.
Evaders: Expectations are always higher in LA, as they should be considering the payroll and star power this team has on an annual basis. But even against the playoff team that no one wanted to face in the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers showed a different kind of fight and managed to come out on top in the most intense series yet this postseason.
Yes, the Dodgers got big swings from the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Kiké Hernández during the series. But the key to LA’s comeback against San Diego was the bullpen. Dodgers relievers held the Padres scoreless through the final 24 innings of the series. The big, bad Dodgers were in trouble, but now that they’ve been given a new lease on life, they’re starting to realize just how good they are.
Key match
Mets pitches against Shohei Ohtani:
Shohei Ohtani has the ability to change any game at any time with one stroke. He will be the centerpiece of the Mets’ pitching staff throughout the NLCS. After his game-tying home run in Game 1 against the Padres, San Diego did a good job of neutralizing Ohtani, as he went 4-for-20 with 10 strikeouts in the remainder of the NLDS.
But there was clearly an offensive plan throughout the series, and having an elite, high-leverage arm like Tanner Scott, who faces Ohtani late in the games, certainly helps. If New York wants to give itself a chance against one of MLB’s best lineups, the Mets’ pitchers need to shut down that lineup’s engine in Ohtani.
How they win
Of: The Mets can win this series because their starting pitching and pitching depth are significantly better than what the Dodgers have. Rolling out Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana gives New York a fighting chance in every game. And because their biggest stars are playing like stars at the perfect time, the Mets’ bats will put pressure on LA’s starting pitching (or lack thereof) in every game, quickly reaching the Dodgers’ bullpen, which will have a carryover effect as the series goes along. How well the LA relievers hold up could be the difference here.
Evaders: If the Dodgers win the NLCS, it will be because the switch they flipped after Game 3 of the NLDS gave them renewed belief that at their best, they are better than their competition. From an offensive standpoint, there can be few teams that can beat these Dodgers. And with Mookie Betts starting to look like himself, Ohtani is always a threat to leave the yard and the sheer depth that LA offers, especially with the pair of Hernándezes heating up, as a match in the series turns into a high-scoring affair, the Dodgers have a big advantage.
Series prediction
Evaders in seven: This series won’t be a cakewalk for either team. The Mets feel like the fate team of this postseason, but that shouldn’t distract from the fact that they are a very good ball club. The Dodgers come in with a lot of momentum after a close series against the rival Padres. New York has a clear starting pitching advantage, but LA’s lineup is built on slugging and big swings that change a game.
The difference probably lies with the bullpens and the managers. Both Dave Roberts and Carlos Mendoza have defeated their opponents so far in October. Mendoza has looked unimpressed in the postseason, even as a new manager, but Roberts still has the advantage after being in these moments so many times. This series will be all-out, but the Dodgers’ experience will give them the edge and send them to the World Series for the first time since 2020.
