The Mets enter the competition this week three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta with a chance to earn a Wild Card spot.
These are the playoff scenarios for the final week of the regular season, with the postseason starting next week…
Mets clinch Wild Card spot as…
The Mets are 2.0 games ahead of the Braves, meaning the math is pretty simple when it comes to their chances of clinching a playoff spot during the series that takes place Tuesday through Thursday in Atlanta.
If the Mets win at least two of the three games against the Braves, they’re in.
If the Mets go at least 4-2 in their last six games, they’ll be in.
In a scenario where the Mets win just one of three games against the Braves, they would remain 1.0 games ahead of them, but lose the season series to Atlanta. In that reality, the Mets still have control over their destiny, but things get murkier.
Mets determine their own fate as…
In the above scenario, where the Mets win just one game in Atlanta, they can still clinch a Wild Card spot by beating the Brewers in Milwaukee during this weekend’s three-game series.
Because the Mets would enter Friday’s game with a 1.0-game lead over Atlanta, the Braves would be unable to catch them if the Mets beat Milwaukee.
The Mets would also control their own destiny in a scenario where they won only one game against the Braves and failed to beat the Brewers, but the Braves lost one or more games to the Royals on their final series of the season.
For example, in a world where the Mets enter the final game of the weekend with a 1.0 lead over Atlanta and the Braves lose once to Kansas City, the Mets could secure a spot by winning two of the three games against the Brewers. Each additional loss by the Braves to the Royals would give the Mets more room to maneuver.
Mets need help when…
If the Mets are swept by the Braves in Atlanta, they will enter Friday’s game trailing the Braves by one game and without a tiebreaker.
That means New York no longer has control over its victory over Atlanta.
The scenarios in which the Mets would finish ahead of the Braves are…
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Win three games against Brewers, while Braves lose at least two games to Royals
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Win two games against Brewers, while Braves lose three games to Royals
The Diamondbacks are also worth watching
It’s not all about the Braves, as the Mets are trying to qualify for October.
The Mets enter Monday in a tie with the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot, but they retain the tiebreaker with them because they won the season series.
As mentioned above, if the Mets win at least two games against the Braves this week, they’ll be in.
If they fail, they can still get into contention by overtaking the Braves OR by finishing tied with or ahead of the D-backs.
Arizona closes the season with six home games against the Giants (Monday through Wednesday) and the Padres (Friday through Sunday).
The NL East scenario
The Mets trail the Phillies by 5.0 games in the NL East with six games remaining, and Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker.
That means one win for the Phillies or one loss for the Mets would secure the division for Philadelphia.
There is, however, one crazy scenario in which the Mets win the division.
If the Mets go 6-0 and the Phillies go 0-6, New York will win the NL East.
