Michigan (6-5) is dealing with the inevitable fallout from their iconic 2023 National Championship run, as their 76th SP+ offense has dramatically reduced their ability to keep pace with the newly expanded Big Ten. UM went 4-2 through the first half of the schedule, but then dropped 3-of-4 to @Illinois (21-7), Oregon (38-17) and @Indiana (20-15) before Northwestern led 50 -6 scorched . The Wolverines have finally settled on former walk-on QB Davis Warren, who emerged from an early-season three-QB rotation to win the job. Michigan ranks second nationally (134th) in explosiveness and plays at 118th at the slowest pace in the country. Their run defense is top-tier, while UM’s secondary ranks 26th in pass explosiveness but only allows a 61.4% (79th) and is a few notches below their dominant 2023 version.
Ohio State (10-1) is beating opponents by an average scoring margin of 27 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking in the Top 10 on each side of the ball in 3-and-out percentage, EPA/play and points per scoring option . The main weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 96th in blitz-down sack rate at 10.6% and 72nd in total sacks per print (20%). Defensively, OSU is fantastic and ranks first in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes face the sixth-fewest deep passing offense in the country, with just 9.8% of passes defensed coming more than 20 yards downfield. They allow a slightly increased completion rate of 60.3%, which ranks 61st nationally. Aside from a thrilling 32-31 loss to Oregon at Autzen Stadium, Ohio State executed flawlessly and staked their claim for a CFP Playoff appearance with an impressive 38-15 win over Indiana in Week 13.
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Game details and how to watch Michigan at Ohio State
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Michigan Game Odds at Ohio State – Week 14
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
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Moneyline: Ohio State (-2000), Michigan (+1000)
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Spread: Ohio State (-20.5)
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Top/Bottom: 43.5 points
The outlook line for this game was preseason at -10 at Ohio State, but now we’re at -20/20.5 across the board in early trading. The most favorable current moneyline odds are OSU -1428 and Michigan +1100, but Ohio State averages in the -2000 range. This game total briefly opened at 47.5, but is now available between 42.5 and 44.5.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks: “Ohio State just scored 38 points against Indiana and has scored at least 31 points in all but two of 11 games this season. With Ohio State doing everything they can to avenge their current losing streak at Michigan, and the Wolverines a shadow of their 2023 selves, I’m taking the Buckeyes to score 31.5 points against the Wolverines.
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Quarterback matchup for Michigan at Ohio State
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Michigan: The quarterback triumvirate of Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle failed in their attempt to replicate the success of the late QB JJ McCarthy. Orji notably lagged behind the others in passing ability, producing just 148 passing yards in 43 attempts before he was mercifully pulled in favor of Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was barely useful before retiring and giving the job back to Warren. Since being reinserted into the starting role against Michigan State in Week 9, Warren has stabilized his position by completing 64.3% of his passes with a 6-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging a 5.8 yards per pass attempt. To his credit, Warren has thrown just one interception with a pressure-to-sack rate of 13% since getting his job back and has a respectable 69th percentile PFF offensive grade this year.
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State of Ohio: Fifth-year QB Will Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State this offseason, and now the veteran former Wildcat leads the nation’s fifth-ranked SP+ offense for a top national title contender. He’s completing a whopping 73.7% of his throws and working with future first-round wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient passing attack ranks second in success rate and fifth in yards per dropback, despite throwing only 11.2% of their passes more than 20 yards down the field (110th). Howard’s PFF grade of 88.8 is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous highest mark being 72.7.
Betting trends and stats for Michigan at Ohio State
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Michigan’s previously impenetrable secondary has intercepted 7 of 344 attempts this season (49-to-1 ratio), which is the fourth-lowest interception rate in the Big Ten. Purdue ranks last with a 67 pass attempt to interception ratio.
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Michigan’s offense has thrown for 1,541 passing yards in 11 games this season, the seventh-worst mark among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 151.7 passing yards per game this season, 4th best among FBS defenses.
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Michigan’s RBs have averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch this season, 5th worst among FBS rushers. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 5.1 YAC to RBs this season, 8th-best among FBS defenses.
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Ohio State’s opponents hold the ball an average of 30.4 seconds per play, which is the longest plays per second of any defense in the FBS. OSU D ranks first nationally in points per scoring opportunity (2.47) and Red Zone touchdown rate (36%)
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Jeremiah Smith (OSU) has gained 899 yards on 52 receptions (17.3 YPR) this season, 6th best among Qualified Power 5 Skill Players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 yards per reception this season, 25th among FBS defenses.
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Will Howard (OSU) has thrown 16 TDs on just 32 pass attempts in the Red Zone this season, the best Pass Attempts per TD among Power Four Quarterbacks.
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Quinshon Judkins (OSU) has averaged 6.1 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, third-best among Big Ten Running Backs; TreVeyon Henderson runs for 10+ yards on 26.5% of his carries (26/98), the highest mark in FBS.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (last week to now)
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Ohio State +320 to +275
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Georgia +500 to +400
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Texas +500 to +450
Highest ticket%
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State of Ohio 13.4%
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Texas 11.1%
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Georgia 10.5%
Highest Handle%
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State of Ohio 15.9%
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Georgia 14.9%
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Alabama 12.1%
Biggest obligations
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Colorado
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State of Ohio
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Alabama
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