As the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback debates trends toward a (at least temporary) solution, head coach Mike Tomlin has made his preference known.
The Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields debate is not a debate between players with identical skills and different skills.
Rather, with both quarterbacks healthy for the first time this regular season, the Steelers are deciding whether to move forward with a 13-year veteran whose arm talent powered nine Pro Bowl berths, or a younger, higher-drafted pick with a less developed arm but more threat in his legs.
The decision between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields would not draw a unanimous response from the league’s decision makers.
Coaches and executives prefer different quarterback styles, with some always adopting one philosophy over the rest while others decide what best suits the specific roster around him. Some coaches and executives would heavily consider the momentum of a 4-2 Pittsburgh team; others would rely more heavily on the track record of their contenders.
When Tomlin announced this week that Wilson had proven his health and was “in consideration” to start Sunday night against the New York Jets, the 18-year head coach indicated that the Steelers’ winning record does not guarantee Fields the job Tomlin previously gave Wilson had granted. .
“Justin has been very good, and we have been very good at times, but not to be confused with great,” Tomlin said Tuesday. “This is a competitive league, man. We’re trying to position ourselves as that team and we’ve found a player with talent who hasn’t had a chance to play yet.”
Mike Tomlin stops before official Steelers QB Russell Wilson nods. But there is movement.
“Over the course of the week, I became comfortable with his ability to demonstrate his health,” Tomlin said. “He is being considered this week. We’ll see where that leads.’ pic.twitter.com/p7BTODiyUD
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) October 15, 2024
Wilson doesn’t just have talent. He has an arm talent that Fields hasn’t demonstrated and an arm talent that Tomlin’s recent comments suggest he strongly desires.
“So we might look into those things,” Tomlin said.
The clues were there.
When Tomlin noted his opponent’s “much more adept passer,” perhaps he meant more
Tomlin’s reputation for having a few more wins than his squad’s apparent expectations in recent years stems from more than just the coach’s proven ability to energize his players.
Tomlin also works to maximize the strategic benefits for each game plan. The Steelers’ 12 top-10 scoring offenses in his 18 years reflect his success.
Tomlin is keenly aware of how the quarterbacks his team defeated in their four wins compare to those they lost two games against.
The Steelers defeated the Atlanta Falcons in Kirk Cousins’ first game with a new franchise and his first post-Achilles surgery at age 36, and then the Denver Broncos in rookie Bo Nix’s second-ever professional game.
They defeated Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert after he suffered a plantar fascia injury during training camp and were surrounded by a depleted supporting cast, and they defeated the Las Vegas Raiders in the team’s first week of moving on from quarterback Gardner Minshew to Aidan O’Connell this season.
The losses: to an Indianapolis Colts team, quarterbacked primarily by Joe Flacco, and a Dallas Cowboys team, quarterbacked by Dak Prescott.
Tomlin went out of his way to praise them all.
“[Joe] Flacco is the much more adept passer then [Anthony] Richardson, so blitzing doesn’t really help you,” he said after a 27-24 loss to the Colts. “A veteran. Makes quick and wise decisions.”
The following week, two days after Prescott scored the winning touchdown on fourth-and-4 with twenty seconds to play, Tomlin praised the “quality of the play, the throws and the catches”, noting Prescott’s “great charisma and really good throw”. on third and fifth.
Mike Tomlin called Dak to Turpin on third down “great looking and throwing.”
“I certainly want to own our component… but I do the game a disservice sometimes when you don’t recognize the quality skills and talent of those you’re competing against.”pic.twitter.com/bbulRhlbs0
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) October 8, 2024
“That just speaks to Dak Prescott’s talents,” Tomlin said. “I definitely want to be reflective and own our component of the circumstances. But sometimes I do a disservice to the game if you don’t recognize the quality of the skills and talent of those you’re competing against.”
As the Jets arrive this weekend with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, Tomlin spoke to a similar problem.
“To be completely honest, we’re playing offensively against an Aaron Rodgers-led group and that means certain things,” Tomlin said. “When you have a quarterback that has the resume that he has and has had the kind of success that he has had, it’s a challenge no matter who qualifies.
“You better have enough defense, you better have enough types of defense, you can pressure him better, you can play man better, you can play zone better, you can pressure him better. Better to tie it all together with a good pre-snap look. Better to let him read things after the snap.
“That’s what you do when you play a guy of his caliber.”
Tomlin respects the challenge of planning games for and playing against a quarterback with dangerous arm talent. And now it seems he wants to enter his own country.
What information should and should not be told to Tomlin
Fields started six games for Pittsburgh this season, completing 66.3% of pass attempts for five touchdowns, one interception and 184.3 passing yards per game.
Fields has rushed for 231 yards and five touchdowns, grabbing 17 first downs with legs that Tomlin acknowledged that it’s an “X-factor” that Wilson doesn’t offer.
But over the past two weeks, Fields has completed 55.6 and 58.3% of passes, respectively. He’s thrown for less than 150 yards every time.
“I don’t think I played well enough, if I’m honest with you,” Fields told reporters Thursday. “If I’m honest with myself, if I play well enough, I don’t think there’s any kind of that [question] who should play, who shouldn’t.”
Over the course of an average 17-game season, Wilson has averaged 232.2 yards per game for his career, including 219.8 during his final two years in Denver, according to Pro Football Reference. He is averaging 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions per 17-game season, compared to Fields’ ratio of 17:11.
From 2016 to 2021, Wilson led the league with 65 deep touchdowns, also throwing for the most touchdowns (40) and second-most yards (2,910) on tight-window passes, according to Next Gen Stats. His production dipped during the tumultuous years in Denver, but was still competitive: his 12 deep touchdowns ranked ninth in the two seasons, while his 595 rushing yards and seven touchdowns ranked 11th among the Broncos.
Tomlin could factor all of these data sets into a decision for which, as he said, “the variables are endless.”
But the head coach doesn’t seem to be hung up on data either, especially the data his team has produced this year.
“Statistics are often for losers,” he said. “It’s comfort food when you’re trying to get an L. I’m just trying to focus my energy on positioning this group to win and doing what’s appropriate to try to put together the best collective this week and win this game.”
Tomlin’s words and actions clearly seem to point to one quarterback, and they seem to provide a major, if not the only, reason for that decision.
Tomlin respects quarterbacks who can beat his near-perennial top-10 defense with their arm.
He knows his team will face Rodgers, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson (twice), Joe Burrow (twice), Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes before the regular season ends.
With gunfire to defend against, Tomlin wants gunfire for his offense.
Wilson’s resume fascinates the coach too deeply not to at least warrant a tryout.
So Tomlin appears willing to gauge all the arm talent in his building well before the playoffs, when he hopes he’ll need it.
“Sometimes it doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with what Justin did or didn’t do…” Tomlin said. “You’re better off trying to divide the labor in the most appropriate way, based on who’s available to you and who’s healthy, and that’s just what we’re going to do.”
“You better always keep your foot on the accelerator.”