Early Wednesday, Hurricane Milton was a rare and powerful Category 5 hurricane that was accelerating toward the west coast of Florida, where it is expected to make landfall between Port Charlotte and Tarpon Springs early Wednesday or Thursday.
Milton is expected to remain a major hurricane until landfall, pushing a brutal storm surge toward vulnerable areas of Tampa Bay and Sarasota, as high as 15 feet. Mountains as high as 12 feet are possible in Fort Myers Beach to the south, and there is a potential of up to 13 feet near the Anclote River in the Big Bend, where Category 4 Hurricane Helene made landfall less than two weeks ago .
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Palm Beach County, with damaging winds over 40 miles per hour expected to begin as early as Wednesday afternoon, but most likely after sunset. They could last until Thursday. A flood watch was canceled for Palm Beach County but remained in effect for Hendry, Glades and Collier counties.
Areas along Florida’s southwest coast will see conditions worsen throughout Wednesday.
As of 5 a.m., Milton had sustained winds of 160 miles per hour and was moving northeast at 14 miles per hour. It was located about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, over incredibly warm water. Storm-dampening wind shear is expected to increase Wednesday, which could weaken Milton’s wind speeds somewhat, but it is expected to be a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph at landfall.
Milton is being steered by a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and an area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to remain on a northeasterly course until it reaches the coast, where it will then cut through Florida and maintain hurricane strength .
Milton’s hurricane force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 120 miles. But these distances are expected to increase, giving Milton a greater reach across the peninsula.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” National Hurricane Center meteorologists wrote in a discussion Wednesday morning. “This is a very serious situation and Floridians should closely follow the orders of their local emergency management officials.
An estimated 25 counties have issued evacuation orders, including Palm Beach County, which asked residents in Zone A — mobile homes and areas prone to flooding — to leave Tuesday. The province is opening five general population shelters, one special needs shelter and a pet-friendly shelter.
For more information about shelters in Palm Beach County, visit https://discover.pbc.gov/publicsafety/dem/Pages/default.aspx.
West Palm Beach has a 65% chance of sustained tropical storm force winds from Milton. According to the National Weather Service in Miami, Fort Lauderdale has a 46% chance and Miami-Dade has a 10 to 20% chance.
The chance of hurricane force in West Palm Beach is 4%. In Fort Lauderdale that rate is 1%, and Miami has virtually no chance of hurricane force winds.
Rain amounts were reduced by the NWS office in Miami for southeast Florida, with only 1 to 3 inches of rain expected Thursday morning.
State officials and meteorologists are very concerned about how Tampa will cope with the storm if it comes at an angle that pushes the maximum amount of saltwater into the bay.
Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, who writes a column for Yale Climate Connections, said a small swing south could make a huge difference in reducing the amount of storm surge entering Tampa Bay.
An NHC forecast early Wednesday called for Milton to make landfall between Bradenton and Sarasota. That could mean that Tampa Bay would bring hurricane force winds offshore, sending water out of the bay with a smaller wave of 10 to 6 feet on the back of the storm.
“We probably won’t know whether or not Tampa Bay will experience a catastrophic storm surge until six hours or less before landfall,” Masters said. “A fluctuation of just 15 miles in course would make all the difference, with tens of billions in storm surge damage occurring with a more northerly route, but only a few billion with a more southerly course.”
But the storm is expected to grow in size, and Masters notes that some of the most destructive storms in history peaked at Category 4 or 5 but made landfall as smaller Cat 3 hurricanes. These include Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Opal in 1995.
Some evacuees reported traffic jams and problems finding gasoline on Tuesday.
Tampa residents Kristin Ruyle and Dan Belcher, who evacuated early Tuesday with their dogs Fritz and Berlin, said they took as many shortcuts as possible but still said their expected 6-hour drive to South Carolina was estimated at 10 hours .
Milton is the first hurricane the couple has evacuated from in the 25 years they have lived in Tampa. The center of the predicted track cone passed over their house and concerned phone calls from friends and relatives convinced them they had to go.
Another motivator; Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN that if people in evacuation areas choose to stay, they “will die.”
“My phone was going crazy, people were calling and panicking,” Belcher said after the appearance on CNN. “We had friends from all over the country saying, ‘You guys have to leave, you’re about to die.’”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network based in Florida. She covers real estate, weather and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Support our local journalism and subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Milton remains a major hurricane and will make landfall late Wednesday early Thursday
