MINNEAPOLIS – With just over a week to go until the presidential elections, most polls say the race is a draw. But how accurate are the polls?
The polls have done poorly before – most infamously in 2016 when almost every poll had done so Hillary Clinton defeats former President Donald Trump. Pollsters dramatically failed to accurately capture Trump’s support and he won that election.
In 2020 they had the winner right, but if you look closely, they still underestimate it the final Trump vote.
The week before the 2020 election, polls averaged Biden at 51.2% and Trump at 44%.
The actual results for 2020 were close to the polls, with Biden winning, but Trump finishing with 48.5% – four points more than polls showed he would get.
This year, the average of major polls shows this race tied with both Harris and Trump at 48.5%.
Trump has gained ground about Vice President Kamala Harris in recent weeks, but could the polls still be underestimating his support?
“I think there is a segment of the population that doesn’t want to say out loud that they support President Trump,” said Republican analyst Amy Koch. “I think there’s a large population out there, that’s what these numbers reflect.”
Democratic analyst Abou Amara agrees to some extent.
“I think it’s going to happen. I don’t think it’s going to be as big as 2020,” Amara said. “Democrats have the most robust election operation in history and that’s how you challenge some of the polls because I think there is support for Trump that is not reflected in the polls.”
Pollsters believe they are accurately reaching Trump voters this time.
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