The 2024-2025 NBA season is here! We analyze the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy prospects for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
MINNESOTA TIMBER WOLVES
End 2023-24
Off-season moves
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Additions: Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop (unofficial!), Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr., Joe Ingles, PJ Dozier
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Deductions: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyle Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin, Monte Morris, Wendell Moore Jr., TJ Warren
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Complete roster
The big question: Will KAT’s move keep Minnesota “at the big table?”
Behind a resurgent Rudy Gobert and a suffocating Jaden McDaniels, the Timberwolves boasted a historically great defense last season. Chris Finch’s club allowed 2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than second-place Boston; that was the third-largest gap between Nos. 1 and 2 since 1996, according to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann.
That defense produced Minnesota’s first playoff series wins in two decades. But the Wolves ran aground against the Mavericks, who held Anthony Edwards to 40% in the paint, forced him to surrender on 46% of his drives and dared his teammates to beat them. They couldn’t. Minnesota scored just 112.1 points per 100 against Dallas, a mark that would have ranked 24th in offensive efficiency during the regular season.
“The West is so cruel,” Timberwolves president Tim Connelly recently told KSTP-TV’s Darren Wolfson. “You know, it’s a chance here, a chance there, who’s healthy — so much is matchups and health. But we just want to stay at the big table.”
That makes the blockbuster trade of Towns, Minnesota’s second-leading scorer last season, all the more fascinating. Does moving KAT for Randle and DiVincenzo help Minnesota stay “at the big table” this season?
The affirmative case probably arises from two beliefs. First, that reigning Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid can replace a larger portion of KAT’s production than you might think, at a fraction of the cost. (At least, until he gets the contract extension he’s eligible for after the season, which the Wolves will almost certainly offer him, and which will still be significantly less than what Towns will earn with his supermax.)
And second, what the Wolves needed most to grease the wheels of their offense was more shot creation – someone next to Edwards to break down the defense and generate good looks.
That’s why Connelly traded a couple of potentially juicy future picks to pounce and draft Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham. But 165-pound 19-year-olds are rare on playoff teams. So: Enter Randle, a superior facilitator for Towns over the past five seasons, with a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate.
While he still gets stubbornly caught in traffic at times, Randle has proven more adept at breaking defenders off the dribble, calling for help and setting up teammates. Since 2020, only four players have assisted on more corner three-pointers than Randle: Luka Dončić, Trae Young, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić.
However, with those shoulder checks and deft deliveries comes many possessions that end with a bang. While Towns has made less than 36% of his three-pointers just once in nine years in Minnesota, Randle has more than 36% once in his nine pro seasons. Even if Mike Conley Jr. replicates his career-best 3-point accuracy of 44.2% and DiVincenzo is able to maintain the monster jump shot he made last season as a long-range shooter, Finch could struggle to create enough half-court spacing in Gobert/Randle. /McDaniels lineups to give Edwards room to cook.
That’s the last thing Minnesota needs: more growth from Ant, who made real strides as a playmaker on his way to his first All-NBA selection last season. He is probably the team’s most direct path to a top 10 offense that would help secure that place “at the big table.”
The Wolves could very well do that – if Edwards shows that growth, if Finch can put Gobert and Randle together faster than Rudy and KAT, if Conley and DiVincenzo can keep everyone on schedule, if McDaniels makes a big move, and when everyone can cough. the ball up less (two consecutive bottom-10 finishes in turnover rate) while being pushed more (28th in transition frequency). That sounds like a lot of ‘ifs’ though, right?
So here’s one more: If enough of those things don’t go the Wolves’ way, they could be back on the outside looking in, wondering if they’ve already missed their best chance, after having jettisoned a cornerstone in the service of avoiding the second apron and saving luxury tax dollars. Sounds like an uncomfortable place to sit, no matter what table you’re at.
At best
The defense holds firm. Edwards and Reid are posting another season of overall career highlights. Great play from the newcomers, a little shock from Dillingham and the creativity of Finch and his coaching staff push Minnesota into the top 10 on offense, giving the Wolves the foundation for another Final Four finish – this times with more depth and more spice.
When everything falls apart
Minnesota returns to the 2022-2023 battle to find synergy. Randle and Gobert get in each other’s way, and they both get in Ant’s, resulting in a return to clogged half-court toilet sets and a lot of whining from Minnesota’s new big idol. Which in turn leads to growling from Gobert – after all, big dogs that aren’t fed won’t guard the yard – and a slight but noticeable defensive decline. A below-average offense and a less-than-elite defense is not a recipe for success; in fact, in one of the deepest West we’ve ever seen, we see the Wolves slipping back into the play-in mix.
Fantasy twist
Are we ready for Anthony Edwards’ real breakout season? I’ve belatedly ranked him first in category competitions as this is the year he makes another leap in scoring, improved efficiency and inventory building. For all the disrespect Rudy Gobert gets, he is a double-double machine who should take a few shots per game. Gobert’s mid-fourth round ADP is decent, but I’d prefer to have him near the end of the fourth round.
Wolves head coach Chris Finch confirmed that Julius Randle will start at PF, so expect Naz Reid to remain in a similar role to last year. Reid is coming off a career year where he took home Sixth Man of the Year honors and his ADP is underrated at 100. Mike Conley is another player whose ADP is low. At 36, he’s still an effective passer who can help fantasy managers on steals and 3s after the 10th round. — Then Titus
Schedule 2024-25
I’m going down. While Minnesota won 56 last season, with Towns missing a significant chunk with a torn meniscus, Edwards, Gobert, Conley, McDaniels, Reid and key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker missed just 26 games. combined. With how strong the rest of the West appears to be this season, the injury luck that ramps up a bit against Minnesota – combined with a transition to life after KAT – could be enough to shift a handful of W’s from last year to the other side of the ledger.
