As the free agent and trade markets develop and teams continue to look to improve this winter, front offices are determining not only what their rosters need, but also which players they think will best fit their team. In some cases, this means choosing between similar options, perhaps with a few key differences.
Below are a few such combinations, with a look at why a team might want one over the other, or vice versa.
Third Base: Nolan Arenado vs. Alex Bregman
The two players who appear to be locked in this season are the two primary third basemen on the market, Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman. While a team with St. Louis would have to trade for Arenado, which won’t be easy given his no-trade clause, the free agent Bregman could sign with any team.
The 30-year-old Bregman is clearly the better player at this point in his career. While his offensive numbers have taken steps back in recent seasons, his 124 wRC+ since 2020 still ranks sixth among third basemen (min. 500 games). Meanwhile, Arenado, 33, is having his worst season in terms of offensive production since his rookie year. year 2010.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Astros all have needs for a third baseman and have each been linked to both players, although Arenado reportedly blocked a trade to Houston this week. How much each team is willing to spend to fill the position will likely be the determining factor in how this plays out. Bregman comes at a much higher price, likely in the $30 million AAV range, as he has more prime years ahead of him and a consistent record of offensive production with above-average defensive ability.
Arenado has three years and $74 million left on his current deal, and the Cardinals may have to eat some of that money in a trade. Because while Arenado is still a well-above-average defender at third, his offensive numbers have slipped a few steps. He’s just two seasons removed from a third-place NL MVP finish, but the team trading for him is betting the 10-time Gold Glove winner will bounce back in ’25.
First Base: Pete Alonso vs. Christian Walker
When it comes to the top of the front-tier market, there is a clear divide between Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and the rest of this year’s class. Alonso, 30, is the big name who comes with a resume of major productions and accolades. Only Aaron Judge has more home runs in the MLB since Alonso’s debut in 2019, when he won NL Rookie of the Year. And if this is the conclusion to his tenure with the Mets, it ended on a high note, with several memorable home runs in the postseason.
Walker, 33, is a bit of a late bloomer. He started his career in Baltimore before finding a home in Arizona. But the first baseman, one of the more under-the-radar players in the game, has found himself in free agency for the first time in a big way. Although he doesn’t have as long an attacking history as Alonso, he is no slouch when it comes to power. Walker’s 95 home runs over the past three seasons rank third among first basemen in the MLB.
But perhaps the biggest advantage for Walker here is his elite defensive ability. He is arguably the best defensive first baseman in baseball, leading the league with more outs than average and defensive runs saved as of 2022. He has won the NL Gold Glove at the position the past three years.
When it comes to pure power production, there aren’t many players in baseball who can perform at an elite level like Alonso, and he has age on his side as he enters his age-30 season. But Walker’s all-round ability has certainly expanded his market and could make him more attractive to some teams than Alonso, who despite his prodigious strength is more of a one-dimensional player.
Starting Pitcher: Jack Flaherty vs. Sean Manaea
2024 felt like a make-or-break year for Flaherty, who after signing a one-year deal with the Tigers had to show he could stay healthy and be a big part of the starting staff again. Over the course of the season, the 29-year-old Flaherty proved his durability while utilizing the electric stuff that helped him finish fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2019. The right-hander, who was traded by Detroit at the deadline moved, finished the year with his hometown Los Angeles Dodgers, and became a World Series champion.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea’s 2024 season surprised many, as after average seasons in ’22 and ’23 in which he made just ten starts, Manaea had perhaps the best season of his career this past year. With some adjustments to his pitching, the 32-year-old left-hander turned in a 3.47 ERA in a career-high 181 2/3 innings, striking out 184 batters. Not only was his success on an individual level great, but he was also one of the driving forces behind a Mets team that reached the NLCS.
When it comes to Flaherty and Manaea, it’s all about the positive side. Both pitchers found a new level in their year off, and now the question is, can they keep it up long-term? Any team that signs them should feel good about their ability to continue their development and recent success. Both starters’ ability to swing and miss consistently will increase their value in the market, and if they can stay healthy, it will go a long way toward their projected futures. The reality is that where these two end up will depend heavily on their alignment with an existing rotation.
For free agency discussions, the biggest difference between the two, aside from the age difference, is the fact that Manaea received a qualifying offer from the Mets and Flaherty did not from the Dodgers. This means that any team that signs the left-hander will forfeit a draft pick. And while Manaea’s potential far exceeds that of an unproven draft pick, teams have been reluctant to give up that compensation in recent years, forcing such free agents to wait on the market.
