The MLB postseason is upon us. And with less than two weeks left in the regular season, every team with World Series aspirations has a lot to play for.
Let’s analyze the state of MLB and the playoffs as they stand now.
Who has secured a spot in the play-offs?
The Brewers captured the NL Central title on Wednesday, but have not yet qualified for the playoffs.
Subscribe to Baseball Bar-B-Cast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Who can win next?
The Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles, Yankees and Guardians all have at least a 99% chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs. The Astros, Royals and Padres are above 90%. The Diamondbacks, Twins and Mets have the postseason in sight, but still have a long way to go to get there.
Having statistically secured their postseason spots, the Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Guardians, Astros and Yankees are positioned to win their divisions, assuming their current leads hold. The Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees and Guardians are in line to earn byes via the wild-card round.
What is there left to win?
Once a team has punched its ticket to the postseason, there’s still a lot to play for. Most division leaders are comfortable, but teams can still fight for a playoff spot until the final weekend of the season.
The No. 1 and No. 2 seed in each league goes to the division winners with the two best records. Those teams earn a bye through the wildcard round and hosting rights in the division series.
The No. 3 seed goes to the winner of Division 3, and that team will host a three-game wild-card series against the No. 6 seed (who goes to the third wild card). The top wild-card team earns the No. 4 seed and hosting duties against the No. 5 seed in the wild-card bracket.
The highest placed team will also get home advantage in the championship series, once we get to that point.
What would the play-off pool look like if the season ended today?
American competition
Wild Card: No. 6 Minnesota Twins vs. No. 3 Houston Astros
ALDS: Wildcard winner vs. No. 2 Cleveland Guardians
Wild Card: No. 5 Kansas City Royals vs. No. 4 Baltimore Orioles
ALDS: Wildcard winner vs. No. 1 New York Yankees
National League
Wild Card: No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS: Wildcard winner vs. #2 Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card: No. 5 New York Mets vs. No. 4 San Diego Padres
NLDS: Wildcard winner vs. #1 Philadelphia Phillies
What are the tiebreakers?
Teams no longer play Game 163 if they end the season in a tie. Instead, tiebreakers are determined first by head-to-head records and, if necessary, second by intradivision records.
These are the tiebreakers that can come into play:
The Yankees secured the tiebreaker against the Guardians.
The Guardians secured the tiebreaker against the Orioles.
The Phillies secured the tiebreaker against the Dodgers.
The Mets have secured the tiebreakers against the Padres and Diamondbacks.
The Orioles will play the tiebreaker against the Yankees with three games remaining.
The D-backs will play the tiebreaker against the Padres with three games remaining.
The Mets will play the tiebreaker against the Braves with three games remaining.
What does the schedule for the wildcard and division series look like?
Wildcard series
Game 1: Tuesday October 1st
Game 2: Wednesday October 2nd
Game 3: Thursday October 3*
Division series
ALD’S
Game 1: Saturday October 5th
Game 2: Monday October 7th
Game 3: Wednesday October 9th
Game 4: Thursday October 10*
Game 5: Saturday October 12*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday October 5th
Game 2: Sunday October 6th
Game 3: Tuesday October 8th
Game 4: Wednesday October 9*
Game 5: Friday October 11*
(*if necessary)
