(Bloomberg) — Moldovan President Maia Sandu was on track to win Sunday’s first round of elections, but a key referendum on joining the European Union remained too close to be a sign of the challenges facing it. country will face if it breaks free from Russia’s grip.
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Sandu received about 42% support, the most among a group of 11 contenders, according to preliminary results from the Central Election Commission in the capital Chisinau. Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian candidate and former prosecutor, came in second with about 26%. The second round is scheduled for November 3.
The result of the crucial referendum, which aims to enshrine the long-term goal of EU membership in the country’s constitution, remained with 49.9% support after around 98% of votes were counted. Countless ballots from voters abroad, who tend to support EU accession, could still influence the final outcome in the coming hours.
The stakes are high in the former Soviet republic as the pro-EU government faced what it called an unprecedented Russian attempt to thwart the vote in a coordinated campaign. Sandu wants to bring the country into the EU by the end of this decade. A referendum failure could complicate her European ambitions, even if the vote is not binding.
“Moldova has faced an unprecedented attack on our country’s freedom and democracy, both today and in recent months,” Sandu said in the early hours of Monday morning. “We have clear evidence that criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented proportions,” she added.
Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, started accession negotiations with the EU this year after declaring its candidacy together with Ukraine in 2022. Sandu’s government has pledged to overhaul the country’s legal system and strengthen the economy to join the country by 2030.
Attempts to disrupt
But Russia, which has dominated Moldova’s energy resources and political system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has tried to block the country’s western course. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of meddling in the elections, the top Moldovan negotiator at the EU said last week that Moscow had pumped around 100 million euros in an attempt to disrupt the elections.
The election commission said the vote had taken place without major disruptions. Still, police across the country reported incidents including attempts to transport or bribe voters, photographing ballots, intimidation and scuffles.
The Kremlin “categorically” rejects accusations that it is interfering in Moldova’s election process, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week, according to state news service Tass.
Mihai Mogaldea, deputy director of the Institute for European Policy and Reforms, said he was confident that votes from Moldovans who cast their ballots abroad would give the EU referendum a majority.
Sandu, a 52-year-old former World Bank official, has led Moldova since 2020 with an agenda to move the country out of Moscow’s sphere of influence and integrate it into the West. Polls show she would be favored if she were to defeat Stoianoglo in the second round on November 3.
A procession of EU leaders had visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. The head of the commission announced the allocation of a record amount of 1.8 billion euros to support the Moldovan economy.
The campaign has already resulted in a shift for the country sandwiched between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While the largest trading partner ten years ago was Russia, now around 70% of exports – mainly fruit and wine – go to the EU.
But Moscow still has influence. Although the EU has helped the country restore energy supplies cut off by the Kremlin, Russian troops are present in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Gagauzia, an autonomous region south of Chisinau, also supports Russia.
The electoral stakes will also rise further next year, when Moldova holds general elections. In that battle, Sandu’s pro-European party may face tougher competition than in the presidential race.
–With help from Irina Vilcu.
(Updates with preliminary results from the first paragraph.)
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