BANGKOK (AP) — Myanmar, once a booming emerging economy, is struggling to regain momentum as the country’s civil war increasingly disrupts trade and livelihoods.
World Bank economists estimate the country’s economy grew at an annual rate of 1% in the year ended March, slower than previously expected, according to a report published on Wednesday. They expect a similar growth rate for this financial year.
According to the report, almost a third of all people in the country live in poverty and the economy is about 10% smaller than before the pandemic.
The World Bank’s April survey “suggests little to no improvement in economic activity over the past six months,” the report said.
Pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic minority forces are battling Myanmar’s military after the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in early 2021. In recent months, the army has come under pressure due to increasing pressure from the resistance forces. a series of unprecedented defeats on the battlefield.
“The economic outlook remains very weak, meaning little reprieve for Myanmar households in the short to medium term,” the report said. “The business environment will remain constrained by conflict, trade and logistics disruptions, macroeconomic volatility, regulatory uncertainty and power outages.”
More than 3 million people are believed to have been driven from their homes due to armed conflict in much of the country. Meanwhile, the value of Myanmar’s currency, the kyat, has fallen and many imported goods are in short supply. According to the report, about a third of factories surveyed by the World Bank reported experiencing electricity outages.
In the six months ending in March, Myanmar’s exports fell 13% from a year earlier, while imports fell 20%, the report said.
Before the military takeover, garment factories were a thriving source of jobs, especially for young women, and export revenues for the newly industrialized economy. But global brands have withdrawn from the country and industrial exports fell by almost a fifth in the six months to March.
The report notes that already significant labor shortages have worsened further as Myanmar’s military rulers have expanded conscription to replenish their forces. Workers have also fled abroad or to the countryside.
