Could Kyle Larson really miss the opportunity to race for the 2024 Cup Series title?
The best driver in the Cup Series this season sits fifth in the Cup Series standings heading into Sunday’s final race of round three at Martinsville. Thanks to wins from Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick, the 2021 champion and six-time race winner this season is seven points behind Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron for the final spot in the final four.
If you need a refresher on the NASCAR playoff system, a win automatically advances a driver to the next round. That’s why Logano and Reddick are guaranteed a shot at the title in Phoenix on November 10.
If one of the other six drivers from the play-offs wins on Sunday, he will also be in the final race. If Logano or Reddick (or a driver outside the playoffs) wins the race, two drivers will advance to the final round via their position in the standings.
Here’s a look at how each of the eight playoff drivers fared at Martinsville ahead of Sunday’s race.
1. Joey Logano (won in Las Vegas)
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31 starts, 1 win, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s
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Average finish: 10.8
Despite winning just once in 31 starts, Logano has the third-best average finish of any driver in Sunday’s race (the two drivers ahead of him are also in the playoffs). Martinsville was also the site of Logano’s biggest heartbreak in the playoffs, but that doesn’t matter this year. He races for victory and nothing else.
1. Tyler Reddick (won at Homestead)
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9 starts, 2 top 10s
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Average finish: 19.3
Reddick’s win at Homestead is still incredible days later, given his last-lap pass by Ryan Blaney on older tires. He also really needed to make it to the final round, given his previous performance in Martinsville. His best finish on the half-mile track is seventh earlier this season.
3. Christopher Bell (4,132 points)
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9 starts, 1 win, 1 top five, 3 top 10s
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Average finish: 16.2
Bell won this race two years ago to give himself a shot at the title. Last fall he finished seventh. He has finished in the first round in six of his nine starts and given his point cushion to Larson, a first-round finish with a few stage points could be enough to advance to the playoffs.
4. William Byron (4,110)
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13 starts, 2 wins, 5 top fives, 7 top 10s
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Average finish: 13.8
Byron was very good at Martinsville after some struggles early in his career. He has finished in the top seven in five of his last seven starts and won the spring race in 2022 and earlier this season. Simply staying ahead of Larson in all three stages is good enough to reach the play-offs, unless a driver behind him in the play-off standings takes the win.
5. Kyle Larson (4,103)
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19 starts, 1 win, 5 top fives, 7 top 10s
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Average finish: 16.7
Larson was so much better at Martinsville with Hendrick than he was with Chip Ganassi Racing. From 2014-2019, Larson finished in the top 10 just twice. In seven starts with Hendrick, Larson has recorded five top 10s and has never finished outside the top 20. He has also led laps in four of the last six races. If you had to bet on a driver in a must-win situation, Larson is probably your first choice.
6. Denny Hamlin, 4,092)
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37 starts, 5 wins, 19 top fives, 25 top 10s
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Average finish: 10.2
Will this be another playoff disappointment for Hamlin? He didn’t have the speed to stop Blaney and Reddick in the closing laps at Homestead and is looking on the outside at Martinsville. However, outside of Richmond, there is no better track for Hamlin to race at in this situation. Hamlin hasn’t won at Martinsville since the 2015 spring race, but since then he has finished in the top five nine times and led plenty of laps. Win No. 6 more than nine years later, after No. 5, would be really nice.
7. Ryan Blaney (4,072)
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17 starts, 1 win, 9 top fives, 11 top 10s
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Average finish: 8.8
Blaney needs to do what he did a season ago. In 2023, Blaney led 145 laps to win his first race at Martinsville. A week later, he was the 2023 Cup Series champion. No active driver has a better average finish at Martinsville than Blaney, and his run of top-11 finishes is nothing short of remarkable. He hasn’t finished lower than 11th since finishing 20th in the 2018 fall race.
8. Chase Elliott (4,067)
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18 starts, 1 win, 6 tops, 11 top 10s
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Average finish: 12.7
Elliott’s season has been defined by consistency. But his second DNF of the season in Las Vegas has left him in a big hole heading into Sunday’s race. Elliott has led 30 laps across 34 races this season, but needs much, much more than that. His victory in Martinsville came in the fall of 2020 en route to his first Cup Series title.
