NORFOLK, Va. (AP) — Political observers have already placed bets on Tim Kaine, predicting the Democrat will seek a third term as the junior U.S. senator from Virginia, a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. .
But Republicans vying for a chance to unseat the former vice presidential candidate say they see an opening with the president Joe Biden at the top of the November ticket. While Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points in 2020, GOP primary candidates say the calculus has changed with higher food prices, illegal border crossings and crime in American cities.
“The only person better off today than four years ago is an illegal alien,” Republican candidate Hung Cao, a 25-year Navy veteran who served in combat zones, told The Associated Press.
Cao has the most campaign money and past experience running for higher office in the general election among the five contenders for the June 18 primary. He also has the support of former President Donald Trump, who stated that Cao would help stop inflation, safeguard the economy and safeguard the economy. border and “defend our Second Amendment which is always under attack.”
Cao’s biography includes fleeing Vietnam with his family as a child in the 1970s. In a campaign video, he compares the Vietnamese communist regime during the Cold War with the current Biden administration.
“We are losing our country,” Cao says in the ad, which blames Biden for the criminal cases against Trump and shows images of border crossings and store looting. “You know it. But you also know you can’t say it. We are forced to say wrong is right. We are forced to lie.”
Cao told the AP that Kaine is a “rubber stamp” for Biden as the Republican base is energized to end Kaine’s 30-year political career.
“If you want that nice guy up there, I’m not your guy,” Cao added. “If you want someone to go in and kick the tail, I’m your guy to make it happen.”
But whether Cao or anyone else in the primaries can pull it off is a big question. Political scientists say there is a narrow path to victory for the Republican Party, given Virginia’s moderate electorate, Trump’s distaste for 2020 and Kaine’s outspoken attitude toward voters.
The most recent Virginia Republican to hold a seat in the U.S. Senate was the late John Warner, a centrist with an independent streak who last won in 2002.
Kaine won his last race in 2018 by 16 percentage points. He has said he is preparing for a tough race this year, noting that “Virginians will vote for Republicans in statewide elections,” as they did for governor in 2021. Glenn Youngkin.
“No one can take that for granted,” Kaine said as he announced his re-election bid.
Yet Kaine’s seat is rated solidly Democratic by the country’s three major political forecasters: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
“This is definitely an uphill climb for the Republican Party in this state, especially with a candidate who could be more easily tied to Trump,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, professor of political science at Christopher Newport University and research director of the Wason Center for Civic leadership.
In addition to Cao, leading candidates include Scott Parkinson, a former congressional aide to Ron DeSantis who now works for the conservative economic policy group Club for Growth. Jonathan Emord is an author and attorney who often cites his experiences successfully fighting the Food and Drug Administration in court.
Eddie Garcia is a U.S. Army veteran and former Army liaison to Congress. He owns a mobile app for military veterans. Chuck Smith is a Navy veteran, former Navy JAG commander, and attorney.
Cao is notable for his support of Trump and his war chest during his campaign. He has raised $2 million as of March 31, more than double what his rivals have, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Cao also made a decent showing in 2022 against Democratic U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton in blue-leaning Northern Virginia. He lost the race by 6.5 percentage points in a district that Biden won by 19 percentage points two years earlier.
“I don’t need to win Northern Virginia,” Cao said of his general election strategy. “I just have to move it like I did.”
Cao has not escaped controversy. The Staunton News Leader reported that its Unleash America super PAC made zero campaign contributions to Republicans running for state House in 2023, even though that was the PAC’s stated goal. It had raised about $100,000 in individual contributions.
Cao told the AP that the story was “a hit” and “there is none there.” He further took issue with radio host John Fredericks, stating that the money should go to start-up costs, lawyers and “compliance people.”
The News Leader reported that the PAC’s expenses included legal fees and money for digital fundraising, a communications company and Cao’s campaign manager. Cao later told podcast host Alec Lace that he had done nothing illegal and that the story had been published by a “local newspaper Podunk.”
The case sparked attacks from some of Cao’s leading opponents and Democrats. But if Cao wins the primary, it will likely be a miniature scandal compared to the challenge of winning over moderate voters, said Bromley-Trujillo, a professor at Christopher Newport University.
It’s a challenge all primary candidates face, she said. They have run campaigns largely to the right of Republican Gov. Youngkin’s successful race three years ago. And she doesn’t expect anyone to turn to the center after calling for Trump’s endorsement.
As a candidate in 2021, Youngkin did not disown Trump, but kept him at a distance. Youngkin also focused on state and local issues, such as parents’ frustrations over pandemic school closures and ending the state’s tax on groceries.
The race for governor was the latest opportunity for GOP candidates to win statewide office, with a Republican lieutenant governor and attorney general joining Youngkin in victories.
However, Youngkin won by two percentage points. And J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wonders whether Youngkin would have succeeded if the race had taken place after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the nation’s right to abortion in 2022.
“Virginia tends to be a little redder in those odd years, because perhaps more attention is paid to state issues, or because Democratic enthusiasm may be a little lower in those years,” Coleman said.
Still, Democrats who campaigned on protecting abortion rights regained full control of the Virginia General Assembly in 2023. It was a major loss for Youngkin and his proposed 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother’s life.
Meanwhile, Coleman said Kaine has a reputation as a father-like figure who is quite relatable. He has won all of his statewide races, including as governor and technically as vice presidential candidate in 2016, when he and Hillary Clinton carried the Commonwealth.
“Virginia is a blue state, but it’s not California or Massachusetts,” Coleman added. “And once you get west of Charlottesville, there’s a lot of Republican ground. It’s usually pretty Democratic, but the Republicans can win here if everything falls into place for them. .”
