Welcome back to the most accurate power rankings on the web, where in this biweekly episode we’ll sort the eight-team NBA Cup quarterfinalists into an order so perfect that it can’t be doubted.
Gone from this list are the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. In their place will be the rising New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks, the upstart Atlanta Hawks and the injury-plagued Orlando Magic – perhaps the only teams that can keep Cleveland and Boston from meeting in the Eastern Conference finals.
If the East contingent doesn’t raise our hopes that the NBA Cup’s single-elimination phase can salvage a confusing start to the tournament, look to the West, where the conference’s top four teams may have advanced to the quarterfinals (though the Memphis Grizzlies will not make their statement).
How much deeper is the West than the East? Let these power rankings be our guide.
8. Orlando magic
If they had done that, the Magic might have been the East’s best NBA Cup bet or Franz Wagner or Paolo Banchero. They outscore opponents by 9.6 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Wagner is on the floor without Banchero, and they outscore opponents by 5.6 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Banchero is on without Wagner, according to Cleaning the Glass.
And Orlando might have challenged the West winner had he been fully healthy. The Magic are rich with the kind of talent teams they assemble as they compete in and around the lottery year after year, and they have the two players they need to lead them. Both Wagner and Banchero have showcased their All-NBA ability during stints at the helm of an up-and-coming contender. Now it’s about utilizing that.
But both tore the right oblique, and Orlando has performed as an 18-win team without the pair. The team we see in this tournament will (hopefully) not be the team Orlando unleashes in April.
7. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are still the Hawks, who can play bad or good. They still have Trae Young and all the strengths and weaknesses that come with hiring him at the top of the roster. And they’re still fighting to avoid their annual participation in the play-in tournament.
Only now, Atlanta’s inconsistency is an encouraging sign. They rely heavily on Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, all under the age of 24. Growing pains are part of their development, but there are few teams – virtually none – that wouldn’t want to swap wings with the Hawks, and Dominique Wilkins was about the last time anyone would have said that.
It was good enough to get them here as winners of a bracket that included both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. This single-elimination tournament will be good practice for a return to the playoffs as there is hope in Atlanta for the first time in a long time.
6. Milwaukee Bucks
Remember when we took a deep dive into three-point specialists and encouraged Milwaukee to play AJ Green more often? Doc Rivers listened and Green rewarded him (48.2% on 8.7 3PA per 36 minutes). The Bucks are 11-5 when Green plays more than 15 minutes and 1-6 when he plays less.
Green’s expanded role coincided with Milwaukee’s 10-3 turnaround from a 2-8 start. The Bucks have climbed above .500 and into position for a guaranteed playoff berth. Their net rating is above zero (0.9), and Khris Middleton made his season debut just in time for this tournament.
All signs point to a team ready to make an NBA Cup statement. Except when we dug deep into the strength of the schedule and discovered Milwaukee hadn’t played anyone. The Bucks are 2-8 against teams with winning records and 4-7 on the road, making them championship pretenders. A run in this tournament could change our minds.
5. New York Knicks
Tom Thibodeau keeps reminding us that his Knicks can’t compete for a championship if their defense doesn’t improve, even though they’ve won 10 of 13 games. In that period, their 123.1 points per 100 possessions lead the league, but their defensive rating remains below average.
The porous defense is a feature and not a bug, as the Knicks use Karl-Anthony Towns as their starting center and they don’t have an elite rim-protection reserve to mask his deficiency. Towns has been an offensive juggernaut and New York has followed suit, but in the back of our minds we have to wonder if the Knicks can make stops when they need to. And they will need that too.
Can you win the NBA Cup with a sub-par defense? And if that doesn’t work out, what should New York’s front office think about its chances in the playoffs? This tournament could be the impetus for another call-up to Portland, where the lottery-bound Blazers’ frontcourt is stacked with capable bigs.
4. Houston Rockets
The Rockets had hoped that Jalen Green, their highly drafted wing, would realize his All-Star potential by now. Maybe they could have rewarded him with a maximum contract. Instead, they signed him to a three-year, $106 million extension, and his production early this season — an inefficient 19.5 points per game — has confirmed the team’s reluctance.
Meanwhile, Houston has established itself as a fringe contender this season, owner of the NBA’s second-tier defense. And the Rockets are allowing 11.9 points per 100 possessions better when Green is off the floor. If only they had a more reliable scorer to support their mediocre offense.
Unsurprisingly, Green is the subject of trade rumors as Houston looks for its next superstar. And it may seem foolish to use the NBA Cup quarterfinals as a test case for whether or not to pull off a deal. But if the Rockets find that Green is hurting their success in this tournament, why would they think anything would change come playoff time?
3. Golden State Warriors
There has been a lot of discussion about Steve Kerr’s 12-man rotation. This approach has never led to championship results. It was surprisingly effective to start the season as everyone was fresh for their minutes, which isn’t such a bad idea when your best players are in their mid-30s, but there have been some signs of slippage in recent weeks for all kinds of reasons. we had come up with.
“It’s damn hard, there’s no two ways around it,” Curry said of his coach’s tactics. “All I’m saying is that it’s hard for someone to find a rhythm and know what’s being asked of you.”
It will be fascinating to see if Kerr completes his rotation for the NBA Cup quarterfinals, as if preparing for the playoffs, as even the Warriors admit they won’t go that deep in the postseason. (Their rotation dropped to 10 in their most recent NBA Cup game against the Denver Nuggets.) And if Kerr finds success with a zip rotation, the front office will use that as their opportunity to trade multiple assets for a single, better one (that i.e., Zach LaVine)?
2. Dallas Mavericks
If you’re wondering whether heliocentrism can produce an NBA champion, consider this: No one has ever won a championship with a usage rate higher than 34.7%. Only Michael Jordan has won rings with a usage rate greater than 32.5% – the standard by which Giannis Antetokounmpo captured his 2021 Larry O’Brien Trophy. And why am I telling you this?
Well, Luka Dončić’s usage rate, which led the league in three of the last four seasons when he averaged 36.7% of his team’s possessions, has dropped to 32.8% this season. Since November 16, when Dallas began its current streak of eleven wins in twelve games, his usage rate has dropped to 29.5%, and he didn’t even play in five of those games. Does he loosen his grip on the offense?
And will he tighten it up as the stakes rise in the NBA Cup quarterfinals? Does he return to the ball-dominant brand he played in the NBA Finals, when he used 36.7% of the Mavericks’ possessions (again) and they lost in five games? This tournament will provide an early look at whether Jason Kidd will want to play differently as they return to the playoffs.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Since the 2016–17 season, when teams attempted an average of 25 3s per game for the first time, no team has achieved a defensive rating lower than 100. Except OKC allows fewer than 100 points per 100 possessions when Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein are on the floor.
The Thunder have played games without one of their rim protectors, outscoring their opponents by eight points per 100 possessions in their absence — thanks to a rabid small-ball outfit. Imagine how terrifying their defense will be if Mark Daigneault can stagger his big men for 48 minutes and occasionally use both at the same time. They are perhaps the best defense of this era.
They will have to make do with Hartenstein exclusively for the remainder of the NBA Cup while Holmgren recovers from a pelvic fracture. And if they can now navigate this Western Conference field in a single-elimination tournament, what hope do those teams have of eliminating them in a seven-game series when both Oklahoma City bigs anchor their defenses in April?
