The NBA Cup final eight is set, but the top two teams in this ranking never made it out of group play. However, No. 3 and 4 will be representing the West.
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1. Cleveland Cavaliers (19-3, Last Week No. 2). Cleveland is back on top of these rankings after beating Boston last week — a game that was not a playoff preview (for either team), but it is a sign of how things are coming together this season for the Cavaliers. Another sign of that? The way the Cavaliers are finding a spot for 27-year-old Ty Jerome off the bench, he is averaging 11.8 points a game and shooting an insane 50% on 3-pointers (3.1 attempts a game). Kenny Atkinson has found a way to get the most out of Jerome, and that has been the case for about every player on the Cavaliers roster this season.
2. Boston Celtics (17-4, LW 1). In the past two seasons (in a tribute to the Celtics’ depth), there wasn’t much of a difference when Jayson Tatum was on or off the court. This season the Celtics +213 in Tatum’s 764 minutes on the court and +3 when he is off the court. That is a steep drop-off, which might help Tatum’s MVP case, but it is not something that Joe Mazzula wants to see. Boston getting healthy should change that. The Celtics went 3-1 in NBA Cup play with a +23 point differential, but that wasn’t enough to catch Orlando for the Wild Card (the Magic were +45).
3. Houston Rockets (15-7, LW 4). Any lingering doubts from casuals about the Rockets’ legitimacy should have been answered this past week with a win against the Thunder and advancing to the knockout round of the NBA Cup. What’s fueling the Rockets’ rise? Defense. And athleticism. The Rockets have the third-best defense in the NBA this season, and getting stops allows their young athletes to get out and run — Houston is fifth in the league in percentage of possessions that started in transition (via Cleaning the Glass). Ime Udoka will get a z of credit for that and is in the mix for NBA Coach of the Year. However, in the short term, he’s going to be writing a check to the league after getting ejected and then saying postgame, “I told him ‘Get some f****** glasses. Open your eyes.”
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (16-5, LW 3). LeBron James on the Thunder’s NBA-best defense: “They’ve got great hands, very aggressive at the point of attack. They’ve got some guys that can guard the ball. They do a good job of getting their hands on loose rocks out there and 50/50 balls. [They’re a] good team, a really good team.” They are also a very physical team now — a season ago a big team like LeBron’s Lakers could push them around. That doesn’t work anymore, partially due to Isaiah Hartenstein being in the paint, but this team now has a much more mature and tougher mentality. One that will serve them well in the playoffs.
CONTENDERS ON THE FRINGE
5. Dallas Mavericks (14-8, LW 5). While Luka Doncic is as heliocentric a player as there is in the league, the Mavericks are much deeper than that — they won 5-of-6 with Doncic out injured. That’s the sign of a team with the maturity and depth to return to the Finals. As for a short-term title goal, there is the NBA Cup. It took a 15-point fourth-quarter comeback against a good Grizzlies team, but the Mavericks are on to the knockout round of the NBA Cup, where they will have to travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder.
6. New York Knicks (13-8, LW 7). I loved how Steve Jones of The Dunker’s Spot described the Knicks as this season’s Indiana Pacers — New York has the No. 1 offense in the league but is 22nd in defense. It’s like Bizzaro Thibodeau is coaching this team. It’s good for New York that Mikal Bridges has finally found his offensive grove and showed it by dropping 31 on the Pelicans, including seven 3-pointers. That comes just in time because OG Anunoby’s hot start seems to have cooled off. Winnable games ahead this week against Charlotte, Detroit and Toronto.
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
7. Golden State Warriors (12-8, LW 6). Is Steve Kerr tightening his rotation a little? He only played 10 players against the Nuggets on Tuesday (although that was without an injured Draymond Green). He needs to, the team is dominating when Stephen Curry are on the court together, but beyond that the team’s depth has let it down of late. Whether Golden State has enough shot creation outside of Curry to chase another NBA title is up for debate, but they have enough to win the NBA Cup. The Warriors advanced to the quarterfinals/knockout round and now travel to Houston to face a young and athletic Rockets squad.
8. Orlando Magic (15-8, LW 10). The NBA Cup was made for teams like Orlando — a young team on the rise who could use the boost of confidence and experience in a playoff-lite atmosphere. Among the promising signs for the Magic of late — outside the continued strong play from Franz Wagner as a scorer — is the return of Wendell Carter Jr. from injury, as well as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope starting to find his groove with his shot after a cold start. Nobody expected this team to thrive this way with Paolo Banchero out, and getting more from Carter and KCP can keep that run going.
9. Memphis Grizzlies (14-8, LW 9). Memphis needs Ja Morant on the court, and he needs to think about his career and long-term health, but the idea of him dunking less — to reduce the risk of injuries — is still disappointing for we mere mortal fans. The Grizzlies are a respectable 6-4 without Morant this season. If there is one surprise player out of this draft, it’s Jaylen Wells, the other guy the Grizzlies drafted — No. 39 out of Washington State — who has become a starter with this team and has knocked down 44 3-pointers this season, second among rookies (Dalton Knecht).
10. Los Angeles Clippers (14-9, LW 11). Ivica Zubac has quietly put himself in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. The Clippers are fifth in the West standings — hanging with the likes of Memphis, Dallas and Phoenix — thanks to the No. 5 defense in the NBA this season (and they are doing it without Kawhi Leonard). Zubac is the anchor of that, not with raw counting stats — one block a game — but by being in good positions and playing an intelligent, physical game. The advanced defensive stats (such as they are) capture what Zubac is doing. The DPOY award probably ends up in the hands of that alien in San Antonio this season, but Zubac has to be discussed at least.
11. Denver Nuggets (11-8, LW 8). At the quarter mark of the season, the first round of (way too early) NBA award conversations have started, and as much as voters may be hesitant to reward Nikola Jokic again, he is demanding it — 30.1 points, 13 rebounds and 10.4 assists a game this season while shooting 52.2% from 3. He is carrying a team where management keeps chipping away at the pieces around him, but during the regular season he can cover that up by just being better and better every year. Getting Aaron Gordon back healthy this past week will help with the depth and defensive concerns that Michael Malone has expressed.
12. Phoenix Suns (12-8, LW 12). Ugh. Kevin Durant is out again — this time for at least a week with a sprained ankle — and we’ve all seen the stat: Phoenix is 11-2 in games Durant plays and 1-6 in games he has missed. This injury comes at a softer spot in the schedule, which could mean more Devin Booker will be enough to get this team through. What people are sleeping on with Durant’s MVP-level season is his defense: Opponents are shooting 38.4% on shots he defended, and the team’s defense is 3.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. The Suns will need a little more defense from Jusuf Nurkic and others with KD out.
13. Milwaukee Bucks (11-9, LW 14). Milwaukee has won seven in a row (against a soft schedule, but still) and Giannis Antetokounmpo playing like an MVP is at the heart of that. In his last five games, Antetokounmpo has been averaging 36 points a night on 66% shooting, with 9.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. That play has vaulted Milwaukee into the NBA Cup quarterfinals, where it is the top seed and will host Orlando next Tuesday in an elimination game.
14. Miami Heat (9-10, LW 15). The Heat have found something by putting the ball in Jimmy Butler’s hands more and moving Terry Rozier to a bench role (although both are on the court to close games). It worked well, at least until Butler was out Monday night against Boston (a Heat loss). If the Heat continue to hang around the middle of the pack heading towards the trade deadline, the rumors of a Butler trade — Houston? — will only grow louder.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (10-10, LW 18). The Timberwolves remain one of the hardest teams to get the pulse on in the league — are they the team that lost four straight in recent weeks, or the one that bounced back and beat both Los Angeles teams? — but they are in the midst of a stretch of games against other West teams with playoff designs, a series of games that feels like it will define their season. What we’ve seen so far are losses to the Rockets (in OT) and Kings, then beating the Lakers and Clippers. The Timberwolves now have 6-of-8 on the road, and by the end of that around Christmas we should have a better sense of this team. Maybe. Or maybe inconsistent is just who they are.
16. San Antonio Spurs (11-10, LW 17). Don’t assume any lead is safe against the Spurs — they came from 17 down to beat the Sacramento Kings on the road Sunday, the team’s third win coming back from 15 points or more down (hat tip to Paul Garcia, host of The Spot Up Podcast). San Antonio has a +16.2 net rating in the third quarter, that after having a negative net rating for the first half. In the fourth quarter they have a +1.3 net rating. San Antonio is home for its next four games, including facing Sacramento again.
17. Los Angeles Lakers (12-9, LW 13). The Lakers need an elite offense to cover up for its 24th-ranked defense (that is dreadful in transition), and with a top-heavy roster, that means it needs LeBron James in particular to drive things, both scoring and as the primary playmaker. Which is an issue with LeBron in a slump: In his last five games, LeBron is averaging 16.6 points a game on 39.6% shooting overall and he has missed his last 19 3-point attempts. LeBron James has shot under 45% in each of his last six games, something he has not done since his rookie season. With that, the Lakers have a 102.4 offensive rating over their previous six games, which is 28th in the league over that time. The Lakers are 2-5 in their last seven games.
18. Atlanta Hawks (11-11, LW 21). The NBA Cup has given us something that promises to be a must-watch — Trae Young in Madison Square Garden with something on the line. Young revels in being public enemy No. 1 in that spotlight. While we could see a scoring outburst from Young in that game, his playmaking has been on display of late: Young has recorded double-digit assists in 7-of-8, and that has had some impact as the Hawks have won four in a row (including both ends of a home-and-home against Cleveland, the Hawks account for two of the Cavaliers three losses).
PLAY IN HOPEFULS
19. Sacramento Kings (10-12, LW 16). This says everything you need to know about the Kings’ search for answers right now: Jae Crowder went from unsigned journeyman to starting two games for the Kings last week. Sacramento can make a legitimate argument it has just been unlucky: The Kings have the fifth best clutch net rating in the NBA (+15.1 when games are within five points in the final five minutes) but are 5-8 in those games. The Kings have an overall net rating of +1.1, suggesting they should be 12-10, or at least 11-11, but instead they have dropped 6-of-8 and have slid down the West rankings. Maybe Tuesday’s win over a quality Rockets team starts to right the ship.
20. Indiana Pacers (9-13, LW 19). Andrew Nembhard returned from injury, which is a good sign because when the Pacers are healthy they roll out a strong starting five: Tyrese Haliburton, Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Ben Mathurin and Myles Turner have a +14.2 net rating when they are on the court together, the problem is that has happened for just 76 minutes all season. Indiana needs to start winning on the road, it is 2-10 away from Gainbridge Field House, including 0-2 on the current road trip, and the Pacers have 7-of-9 coming up away from home.
21. Chicago Bulls (9-13, LW 23). Chicago wanted this season to play out and see how Josh Giddey fit before offering him a contract extension. Well… it’s a mixed bag. Giddey is averaging good counting stats — 12.1 points, 6.9 assists, 6.3 rebounds a game — but is shooting just 33.8% on 3-pointers and is a minus defender. On a team where Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are tearing it up, and with Coby White seeing a reduced playmaking role, how much does Chicago want the ball in Giddey’s hands long-term?
22. Detroit Pistons (9-14, LW 22). While it would have been fun to see Detroit advance to the knockout round of the NBA Cup, the fact it got to 3-0 and was playing Milwaukee Tuesday for the right to advance is another sign of a step forward for this team this season (the Pistons didn’t get their third win total last season until Dec. 30). It’s good to have Cade Cunningham back from injury, the Pistons have gone 1-3 in games he’s missed and their offense is 5.9 points per 100 possessions worse when he is off the court.
23. Brooklyn Nets (9-13, LW 20). Cam Thomas being out for 3-4 weeks with a strained hamstring will put pressure on others to create scoring opportunities, but it also will open up shots for guys such as Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dennis Schroder, among others. It also is an opportunity for guys trying to get noticed (for their next contract), such as Ziaire Williams. The Nets have gone 1-3 in games Thomas has missed.
CAPTURE THE (COOPER) FLAGG
24. Toronto Raptors (7-15, LW 24). The most entertaining of the struggling teams in the league, the Raptors are 4-3 since Scottie Barnes returned from injury. That includes Scottie Barnes going off for a career-high 35 points, plus adding nine assists and six rebounds in a win over the Pacers. Keep playing like this and the Raptors could leapfrog a couple of teams and move into the play-in mix in the East (they are currently two games back of the No. 10 seed).
25. Philadelphia 76ers (5-14, LW 27). Here’s all that matters in a discussion of Philly turning its season around: Joel Embiid remains out with no official timeline for his return. Paul George has been back for a couple of games but is sitting out a back-to-back Wednesday, which means he will have played in half of the 76ers game so far this season (10 of 20). The best thing to come out of Philly this week is how confused Kyle Lowry looks watching Jared McCain recording on TikTok.
26. Charlotte Hornets (6-15, LW 25). LaMelo Ball being out a couple of weeks with a calf strain hurts the Hornets on the court, and hurts their watchability for the rest of us. The Hornets have now dropped six straight, but only one by double-digits, if you’re looking for the silver lining. Also, it’s good to see Nick Richards back from a 16-game absence, Charlotte needs him along the front line.
27. Portland Trail Blazers (8-14, LW 26). I thought the Deni Avdija pickup this offseason was a smart one for Portland, but he apparently left his shot behind before getting on the plane West. Avdija shot 37.4% from 3 last season and 56% inside the arc, but his season that has fallen off to 34.5% from 3, and it’s worse on two-pointers where he is shooting 41.7%. Light schedule this week with a game against the Jazz then at the Lakers.
28. Utah Jazz (4-17, LW 28). Coach Will Hardy calling a timeout just as Collin Sexton was driving toward the basket for a potential game-winning shot was hard to watch. To be fair, Anthony Davis heard the whistle and stopped sliding over to contest the shot, it would not have been an easy one for Sexton, but Utah didn’t get off a better shot after the timeout (and the Lakers set their defense). Walker Kessler showed off his potential as an old-school big in that game and had some Lakers’ fans fantasizing about trading for him to go next to Davis (Los Angeles isn’t going to meet Danny Ainge’s asking price).
29. New Orleans Pelicans (4-18, LW 29). Zion Williamson is out for at least another two weeks, the team announced, but the better word to use with him is “indefinitely.” While CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray have retuned from injury it hasn’t changed anything, the Pelicans have dropped nine in a row and the questions now are exactly what does pulling the rip cord on this season look like and who gets traded at the deadline?
30. Washington Wizards (2-17, LW 30). Washington finished November 0-14 — the second month this calendar year they have gone winless. There are veterans on this roster who can help snap this losing streak, but due to injuries Jonas Valančiūnas, Malcolm Brogdon and Kyle Kuzma have played a total of 16 minutes together this season. The schedule doesn’t get any easier for Washington with Dallas, Denver and Memphis its next three games.
