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Russian President Vladimir Putin visits China seeking support amid Western sanctions.
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The Russian economy is now dependent on war activities and trade with China.
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Putin wants to rebalance Russia’s relationship with China. But time is on Beijing’s side.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a two-day visit to China and is bringing a large trade delegation with him. It is his first official trip abroad after being re-elected for a fifth term, and it comes days after he appointed a civilian economist to head Russia’s Defense Ministry, demonstrating that his country’s war economy is here to stay.
But while China is Russia’s most important market, Putin is not just looking to Xi – whom Putin has called his “old friend” – for economic support. The Russian leader is also forging a strategic relationship.
“The two states are not allies because they share some cultural or ideological affinity; rather, they have come together under the old saying that the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend,’” says Chels Michta, a non-resident colleague. wrote the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on Wednesday.
“Their partnership is largely practical – anchored in hard power principles, devoid of ideological pretensions or presumptions,” Michta added.
It’s realpolitik: “both sides believe they have more to gain by continuing to work together than they risk losing,” Michta wrote.
Putin must balance China’s grip on the Russian economy
The Russian economy has remained resilient despite more than two years of Western sanctions, partly thanks to boosts from state subsidies and wartime production.
One economist even went so far as to say that the Russian economy is so driven by the war that it cannot afford to win or lose in the conflict.
But Russia has also become increasingly dependent on China since the country started the war in Ukraine. Bilateral trade reached a record level of $240 billion last year – an increase of 26% from $190 billion a year earlier.
“It is fair to say that without China’s economic support, Russia would not have been able to defy the economic sanctions imposed on the country by the West in the wake of Putin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine,” Michta wrote.
However, the trade boom has served Chinese interests more than those of Russia, putting Moscow in an increasingly subordinate position. For example, Russia now “exports raw materials to China, while China sends finished products, mainly cars, to Russia – the latter at the expense of the Russian auto industry,” she added.
So a key item on Putin’s agenda in China would be to get the Chinese to approve a proposed new natural gas pipeline from Siberia to China, as Russia has lost its market to Europe – previously its largest market – due to sanctions.
“By selling large quantities of cheap gas to China, Russia may be able to tie Beijing into a closer geopolitical alliance,” analysts at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy wrote on Wednesday.
“Convincing China to commit to such a major project during the war would be a geopolitical coup for Moscow, demonstrating to the West and the South its ability to deepen its energy relationship with China despite the war.” , the energy analysts added.
But China won’t need more gas before the mid-2030s, so time is on Beijing’s side.
China says it wants peace but has more to gain from continued war
Beijing has called for peace in Ukraine and made a proposal to that effect last year – which some analysts say is vague.
However, some analysts say China has more to gain from a prolonged war.
“America’s continued support for Kiev – and thus Russia’s inability to secure its short-term gains – is actually in Beijing’s interest,” CEPA’s Michta wrote.
“Cutting U.S. aid would work to China’s disadvantage because Ukraine’s implosion would halt — or at least slow down — Moscow’s slide into a vassal-like dependence on Beijing,” she added.
Beijing appears to have decided that supporting Russia is worth any retaliation from the West, added Michta, who is also a military intelligence officer serving in the US military.
This is because an increasingly dependent Russia may be able to offer Beijing the key military technology it has developed in the post-Soviet era, allowing China to make huge strides in the sector.
Moscow and Beijing want to upend the West’s dominance of the world order
Despite their efforts to outdo each other, Russia’s increasingly close ties with China pose a problem for the West.
“Currently, a unity of purpose between the autocratic powers has created the closest relationship in decades. China and Russia are forging a partnership that is increasingly reminiscent of an alliance of great powers,” Michta wrote.
In particular, Beijing has set its sights beyond Russia – which is more interested in changing the balance of power in Europe.
“Beijing is pursuing a much more ambitious project aimed at changing the foundations of the world order, ending the era of global Western domination once and for all,” she added.
Read the original article on Business Insider
