JERUSALEM – For months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has refused to give a timeline for ending the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, a position its critics see as a political tactic. But he has been put on the spot by President Joe Biden’s announcement outlining a proposed ceasefire.
Netanyahu, a conservative, has long juggled competing personal, political and national interests. It appears he now faces a stark choice between continuing his harsh, aggressive government and bringing home hostages held in Gaza as he sets himself and Israel on a new course away from increasing international isolation.
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times
Critics of the prime minister have portrayed him as indecisive and say there are two Netanyahus. One, they say, functions pragmatically in the small war cabinet he formed with some centrist rivals to give it public legitimacy. The other is effectively held hostage by the far-right members of his governing coalition, who oppose any concession to Hamas and ensure his political survival.
On Friday, Biden outlined terms and conditions that he said were presented by Israel to American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators who have been pushing for a deal to pause fighting and free hostages in Gaza. Israeli officials confirmed that the terms were in line with a ceasefire proposal approved by Israel’s War Cabinet but not yet presented to the Israeli public.
Now, analysts say, is the time for Bibi, as the prime minister is popularly known.
Biden “kicked Netanyahu out of the closet of ambiguity and presented Netanyahu’s proposal himself,” Ben Caspit, a biographer and longtime critic of the prime minister, wrote in Maariv, a Hebrew daily on Sunday. “Then he asked a simple question: does Bibi support Netanyahu’s proposal? Yes or no. No-nonsense and hot air.”
The leaders of two far-right parties in the coalition – Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister – have vowed to topple Netanyahu’s government if the prime minister agrees to Biden’s outlined deal. before Hamas is destroyed. Some hardline members of Netanyahu’s own Likud party have said they will join them.
At the same time, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two former military leaders who joined the emergency government during the war, have threatened to withdraw support from their centrist National Unity Party by June 8 if Netanyahu fails to come up with a proposal. clear way forward. And opposition parties have begun to organize in an attempt to overthrow the government.
The ceasefire proposal includes three phases. Under the plan, groups of hostages would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, a temporary ceasefire would lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities, and an internationally backed effort to rebuild Gaza would be launched .
In November, more than a hundred hostages were released under a more limited agreement. An estimated 125 people are still being held by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, although dozens are believed to have been killed.
After Biden’s speech, Israelis had to parse two statements that Netanyahu’s office — unusually — released during the Sabbath. The statements did not strongly endorse the proposal or deny that it had been presented by Israel to the mediators. They are conditional and open to interpretation and seemingly intended to leave Netanyahu’s options open.
The first statement said Netanyahu had authorized the Israeli negotiating team to present a proposal that would bring about the release of the hostages and “allow Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities.”
The second reiterated these conditions for ending the war, adding: “The idea that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are met is a non-starter.”
Conspicuously absent, however, was Netanyahu’s oft-stated goal of “total victory” over Hamas in Gaza — a slogan Biden dismissed on Friday as a vague objective that would mean indefinite war.
While some of Netanyahu’s staunchest supporters have started wearing blue baseball caps emblazoned with the “Total Victory” logo, statements from the prime minister’s office this weekend seemed aligned with the war goals set out by the Israeli army and armed forces. defense establishment, but also by Biden.
On Sunday, Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant reaffirmed that “in any process to bring about the end of this war, we will not accept the rule of Hamas.” He said Israel would “isolate areas in Gaza,” cleansing them of Hamas operatives and “introducing forces that would allow the formation of an alternative government,” without explaining who those forces might be.
Netanyahu’s opponents have accused him of prolonging the war to avoid elections and a public reckoning for Israeli intelligence and policy failures that led to Hamas’ devastating attack on Israel on October 7. That attack sparked Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, and the widespread death and destruction that followed.
But there is now much at stake for Netanyahu, who finds himself at a crossroads, both politically and strategically.
Since forming his current government – the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israel’s history – seventeen months ago, Netanyahu has had an increasingly fractious relationship with Biden. And while the four top congressional leaders formally invited him to address a joint session of Congress on Friday, they did not set a date.
The bipartisan unity masked a charged behind-the-scenes debate over the prime minister’s reception, given deep political divisions in the United States over Israel’s prosecution of the Gaza war.
Biden presented the ceasefire deal not only as a way to stop the bloodshed in Gaza, but also as a path to a grander deal in the Middle East that could lead to Israel becoming more integrated into the region and a “potential historic normalization deal with Saudi Arabia. Israel, Biden said, “could be part of a regional security network to counter the threat from Iran.”
Biden acknowledged that some parts of Netanyahu’s coalition would disagree with the proposal and would prefer to continue fighting and occupying Gaza for years. He urged Israeli leaders “to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes.”
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on Sunday he would give Netanyahu and the government his full support for a deal that would bring the hostages home. Although the president’s role is mainly ceremonial and he does not have executive powers that could help Netanyahu if his government were to fall, his vote is believed to be a unifying one that reflects the national consensus.
After Netanyahu’s office issued the statements on the ceasefire proposal, John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, sought to clear up any confusion about its origins. “This was an Israeli proposal,” he told ABC News on Sunday. “We are confident that if Hamas agrees to the proposal as was conveyed to them – an Israeli proposal – Israel would say yes.”
Still, drawing on past experience, some Israeli analysts remained skeptical about whether Netanyahu would be willing to sideline his far-right coalition partners. That, said Reuven Hazan, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, would require “a new Netanyahu.”
“Every time he has had the choice to go for what is good for the country or for his extremist fanatics, or even for his own party, he has always gone for his extremist fanatics,” Hazan said. He said Netanyahu had also learned how to say “Yes, but…” to the Americans, and then “waited for Hamas to say ‘No’ and put it off as long as possible.”
Hamas said in a statement on Friday that it assessed Biden’s speech “positively” and was ready to deal “in a constructive manner” with any proposal based on a permanent ceasefire and other conditions he outlined.
Given the US political timeline, Hazan said, Netanyahu only needs to engage in “survival politics” until Labor Day, after which the government will focus on November’s presidential elections.
“Is Netanyahu ready to make a 180-degree turn and do what is right for the country?” Hazan said. “Everyone is confused about this now. Don’t hold your breath,” he warned. “A speech from President Biden does not mean we have a new Netanyahu.”
c.2024 The New York Times Company
